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About Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf Laidi is currently chief foreign exchange strategist at CMC Markets, where he oversees the analysis and forecasting functions of G-10 currency pairs as well as decisions and trends of the major global central banks. Laidi is also responsible for education services and informing clients on the essential dynamics underpinning FX markets. His FX analysis has received world-wide wide acclaim for more than a decade, centering on G10 currencies and economies. His currency forecasts frequently placed Number 1 in FXWeek's Currency Forecasting since 2006.


Prior to joining CMC, Laidi monitored the performance of a multi-FX portfolio at the United Nations, assessed sovereign and project investment risk with Hagler Bailly and the World Bank, and analyzed emerging market bonds at Reuters. Laidi also created the first 24-hour currency web site for traders and researchers alike on the eve of the creation of the euro.

Laidis analysis of currency markets stand out based on his distinct style in bridging the fundamental and technical aspects of the markets.


Laidi's expertise in dissecting Federal Reserve policy, unraveling the cyclical relationships between yield curves, economic indicators and equity market performance has enabled him to predict the Federal Reserve cuts of summer 2007, four months prior to their occurrence at a time when the majority of economists, strategists and traders had anticipated interest rates to be hiked or not changed. He went on to call the record highs in gold and the dollar's break below parity against the Swiss Franc and the Canadian dollar. In June-July 2008, Ashraf persistently predicted the Federal Reserve would continue its rate cuts at a time when Fed funds futures were pricing 95% chance of rate hikes in fall 2008.


Ashraf Laidi's market analysis extends to the study of major equity indices, gold and oil, shedding light on the appropriate signals emerging from these markets and their implications for currencies. His specialty in synthesizing commodities, with risk appetite, market sentiment and Fed policy has won him numerous plaudit. His currency predictions placed him at the top of the 12 and 1-month ranking of FXWeeks currency forecasts and at the top of Reuters monthly Foreign Exchange Poll.


Laidi regularly appears on CNBC TV (US, Europe, Arabia and Asia/Pacific), Bloomberg TV (US, Asia/Pacific, France and Spain), BNN, PBSs Nightly Business Report, and BBC. His insights also appear in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, the New York Times, Marketwatch, TheStreet.com, Futures, and a host of other international publications. Besides his habitual media appearances and seminars in English, Laidi has given numerous interviews in Arabic, French, and Spanish to audiences spanning from Canada, Central America and Asia/Pacific.

 
   
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Maintaining My View since June that the Fed will Continue Easing Rates in the Second Half of 2008

"According to Mr Laidi, immediately after the Fed's previous policy meeting in June, futures had priced as much as a 48 per cent chance of an August rate rise and a 65 per cent chance of a September rate rise. "We expect these unrealistic probabilities to continue dwindling for the remainder of the year's meetings," he said. "We also stick with our forecast that the Fed will cut rates by 50bp by year-end."
THE FINANCIAL TIMES August 5, 2008

"Despite the Fed's tough inflation talk, we expect the next move in interest rates to be a decrease of 25 bps to 1.75% in October, with a likely subsequent reduction in December to 1.50%."
FUTURES August 2008

"This highlights our stark disagreement with the fed funds futures pricing a rate hike this year, which was largely a result of Federal Reserve speeches rather than actual data. We stick with our expectations for at least one more rate cut of 25 bps from the Fed to 1.75%, with chances for a 1.50% print at 40% chance."
EMAIL TO CLIENTS
June 6, 2008

 
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Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets [read more..]
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