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Posts by "catnip"
2150 Posts Total by "catnip":
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Posts by Anonymous "catnip":
to compare currencies vs not currency asset imo leads to nowhere. One has to compare to a cash asset. Gold is cash exactly then when fiat money is not accepted as payment of debt.
This can happen both in deflation and inflation.
Don't think nfp is too much manipulated....BUT is the NFP really good? I don't believe it's anywhere
close to good. It's a very dim light at the end of the tunnel, at most. To get back to pre crisis 8 million jobs which were axed since then have to be created. And how many of these jobs are temporary?
How are the new jobs being paid? Here in Europe the only well paid, not temporary new jobs are
governmental and govt hires as if there is no tomorrow. If industry hires, it is temporary and payment is lousy. I do not believe the worst is over and consequently cash ( in USD ) will be king.
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Japan is in a deflation down spiral hence has "negative" inflation. EURO zone CPI goes up and up despite of only low paid new jobs.
And of course EUR/USD short opened at 1.36 .
Imo industry metals copper lead nickel do not reflect supply demand - supply inclusive of LME & Shanghai stocks outstrips demand. Not sure about crude but imo commodities are USD inflation hedges. This could change if FED tightens discount by more than a quarter.
currency and it is common European economy politics, the lack of any, that got EUR bonds in trouble.
AUD/JPY oscillates at 85.7 I plan all trades according to bond& credit markets I see 10 y jap 10 year
UST rise rather sharply. I expect stock&commodity rally nearing end in a few days. Expect USDx rally,too.
USD is about to re-patriated. I expect commodity & stock market crash within the next 10 days
USDx big rally to at least 86.
should indicate yen carry nears end.