EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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I'm a few pips seeker but not poker player
I think if BOJ downgrades its april economics assessment that will put pressure on the Nikkei.
Key Quotes
"There were two interesting headlines today on the Japanese government and its policy stance: 1) the likely downgrading of the government’s economic assessment, and 2) the timing of the changes in the GPIF target portfolio."
"Nikkei reports that the Japanese government intends to downgrade its April economic assessment, scheduled to be announced on 17 April, as household consumption has been slowing after the sales tax hike."
"The likely downgrade could be a message from the government to the BOJ, that it sees more downside risks to the economy."
"As the downgrade will be minor, according to the report, it is too early to expect imminent economic stimulus from the BOJ and MOF, but expectations for BOJ easing could increase again after the downgrade, which is set for 17 April."
"Finance Minister Aso Wednesday said foreign investors may react to the GPIF move from June onwards, thus indicating the timing of the next changes in the GPIF target portfolio. We had judged that mid-year, as early as June, was the most likely timing of the announcement of the next target portfolio change, and Finance Minister Aso's comment today increases our confidence level. The update of the growth strategy, which is likely to include some form of corporate tax cut idea, and GPIF reform both expected in June, could support USDJPY and Nikkei toward H2 this year. "
INTERVIEW-SNB sees some upside in ECB easing, but defends franc cap
By Krista Hughes
WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Switzerland could benefit
from further policy easing in the euro zone if the Swiss franc
weakened in tandem with the euro against the U.S. dollar, Swiss
National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said on Saturday.
But Jordan warned the SNB would defend its currency cap
against the euro and would not hesitate to take other measures
if further stimulus from the European Central Bank pushed the
franc up against the euro.
ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier on Saturday the euro
zone central bank will ease monetary policy further if the euro
EUR keeps strengthening, his strongest signal to date that
the ECB may embark on stimulative asset purchases.
Jordan said it was hard to predict the impact of such
policies on neighboring Switzerland, but the SNB was determined
to keep loose monetary conditions given continued low inflation.
"The euro is very strong against the dollar and a weakening
of the euro in general is probably not too bad for the Swiss
franc," he said in an interview on the sidelines of
International Monetary Fund spring meetings.
"If the Swiss franc weakens with the euro together against
the dollar, that would be something which is beneficial for
Switzerland and the Swiss economy."
The SNB put a cap of 1.20 per euro on the soaring franc in
2011 to help stave off recession and the threat of deflation and
had to intervene heavily in 2012 as the euro zone crisis flared.
The franc has gained nearly 2 percent against the dollar
this year and almost 1 percent against the euro
EURCHF, a rise Jordan said was partly due to safe haven
effects. The franc was still "very strong," he said.
"The minimum exchange rate is the key tool so we will
enforce it also in the future in order to maintain adequate
monetary conditions in Switzerland," Jordan said.
"We do not exclude any measure that is necessary in order to
maintain adequate monetary conditions and we have already said
we do not exclude introducing a negative interest rate."
(Reporting by Krista Hughes; Additional reporting by Dan Burns;
Editing by Andrea Ricci)
((krista.hughes@thomsonreuters.com)(+1 202 354 5854)(Reuters
Messaging: krista.hughes.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
1.40 -1.4050 will be the res.
I think traders will test Draghi Blah Blah to push him to act seriously.
ECB will act before the summer LTRO + negative deposit rates + FED will continue to taper. so th downside prevail with target 1.3550
What is up today ?
Timeframe on Eurjpy usdjpy chfjpy gbpjpy nzdjpy crosses: 1yr weekly chart (impressives divergences +boj wait and see mode (until 2015) same for bOE and FED...)
+ USDJPY short term (few days) neutral but I think is to short for the end of this week. (technical H&S)+ correlation S&P USDJPY 10yr are showing a beginning of a big correction which is unavoidable.
I don't see any major movements on the upside and I think that it's better to short each rebounds.
To night we have chinese GDP figure which will show a decrease. + Chinese PM told last week that 7% is enough for them.
This chinese GDP will be the best catalyst for Yen crosses.
Br,
BOE (WAIT AND SEE POLICY) + INFLATION DOWNSIDE (SEE TOMORROW)
FED (WAIT AND SEE POLICY)+ BUT TAPERING
S&P IS STARTING A BIG CORRECTION 1750,00(BIG LEVEL)+ HAVE TECHNICAL BIG DIVERGENCE
YEN CROSSES HAVE TECHNICAL BIGS DIVERGENCES
US 10YR DOWNSIDE TREND TARGET 1.57
IT'S TIME TO SHORT EURJPY GBPJPY USDJPY FOR A BIG CORRECTION LIKE S&P.
ABOUT MY MONEY INDEED I HAVE BIG CLIENTS WHO FOLLOW ME
USDJPY TARGET 93.00
GBPJPY TARGET 160.50
LONG TERM SHORT
(SHORT EACH REBOUNDS)