Posts by "helmut"

You missed it, Greece had already a default in in March this year, they changed bond agreements backdated by withdrawing all major bonds with a 70% haircut and issued 30 year new bonds which are listed at around 20%. This also triggered the CDS. Greece is done.

This real problem here is that Greece changed existing agreements retroactive (CACs). I believe that's it, EU government bonds are not trusted anymore, I am pretty sure that this fires back to EU bonds.

A question for the equity price specialist. How can I get historical and current equity prices from different exchanges (US, CA, UK, Europe). I like to use it for a portfolio software development (personal use only). So far I found finance.yahoo but I don't know if better or more data is available. An WebService or Java API would be best.

PS: For FX I resolved the problem already by using the FXCM Java API, this API is superior.

Regards Helmut

I wondering myself why here is little discussion about USD/JPY long. It is my best FX trade so far. I am JPY short since summer last year and finally the JPY gets significant weaker, I bought several additional positions as a pyramid, it is working well. The Yen it is still totally overvalued. I may close half of the position at 87, the remaining can go up to 110 which may take another year.

The USD/JPY FX long has also the advantage that there are no daily rolling costs which means I can hold out for a long time.

PS: I am also Long EUR/CHF which is a similar situaltion like the JPY, here I am still waiting that the CHF gets weaker.

VOTE: No Greek default in 2012/2013, no return to the Drachma

The following bonds are due in 2012 and 2013. This is a total of 50 Billion Euro. This is what I was able to find, I believe there is additional dept which I don't know about.

2012
17-Feb-2012 22 Billion
18-May-2012 7 Billion
20-Aug-2012 8 Billion

2013
20-May-2013 8 Billion
20-May-2013 1,14 Billion
20-Aug-2013 1,7 Billion
25-Jun-2013 1,5 Billion

My understanding is the the Eurozone ESFS and the IMF will re-finance the dept for the next couple of years. Many existing bank creditors agreed on an voluntary haircut of 50%. This haircut has already been verbal agreed and will be fixed within the next months. Private bond investors (like me) will be payed back to 100% unless there is an uncontrolled default.

Greece will not leave the Eurozone because all the private and government dept is based in Euro and there is no agreement to throw out a country from the Euro currency. Returning to the Drachma would also mean that all imports cars, etc. get way more expensive. There is a greece government and citizen understanding there they keep the Euro and there is no legal enforcement to change this.

No uncontrolled default in 2012/2013 because the Eurozone cannot afford to let one country to default which would start a knock-on effect on several European countries, nobody would be willing to invest into European government bonds anymore, no banks would borrow anymore, this would end up in a disaster for all European governments as well for word-wide businesses. Also the CDS would be due in case of an Greece default. All the rescue packages are build to avoid this.

For long term I don't know how Greece will get back on track, however for the next years there will be no default.

BTW: Investing a smaller amount of money into a greece Bond due 20-May-2012 is likely to be payed back at 100%, todays price about 37%. Greece cannot force private investors to agree on an haircut, only governments force the bank to do so.

I updated my USD/JPY Long entry order to 79.10, in case the BOJ continues to push the USD.