Forum

Posts by "qiman"

248 Posts Total by "qiman":
228 Posts by member
Qiman
(United States)
20 Posts by Anonymous "qiman":
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
13 years ago
Mar 3, 2011 21:34
Ashraf, wishing you all the best during this transition period, and thanks again for the generous sharing of your knowledge and insights on forex and intermarket dynamics. I haven't been on the forum in some time due to my own transition period, but plan to start spending more time here once again, this is a very valuable resource to traders who want to probe deeper into the markets!
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
13 years ago
Oct 28, 2010 14:49
From Bloomberg:

HSBC Holdings Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. were accused in an investor's lawsuit of placing "spoof" trading orders to manipulate silver futures and options prices in violation of U.S. antitrust law.

The investor, Peter Laskaris, alleges that starting in March 2008, the banks colluded to suppress silver futures so that call options, or the right to buy, would decline, and put options for the right to sell would increase, according to the complaint filed yesterday in federal court in Manhattan. The collusion was also intended to maintain prices at levels at which some options would expire as worthless, Laskaris claims.

The banks placed so-called spoof trading orders, or the "submission of a large order which is not executed but influences prices and is then withdrawn before it reasonably can be executed," according to the complaint.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission began probing allegations of price manipulation in the silver futures market in September 2008. At a hearing in Washington on Oct. 27, CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton said there have been "fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control" silver prices and that violators should be prosecuted.

Joseph Evangelisti, a spokesman for New York-based JPMorgan, declined to comment. Juanita Gutierrez, a spokeswoman for London-based HSBC, also declined to comment.

Separate, Similar Complaint

A separate, similar complaint filed yesterday on behalf of investor Brian Beatty, and naming the same banks as defendants, claims a whistleblower contacted the CFTC last year and reported the banks' conspiracy to suppress prices of silver futures to profit from "enormous" short positions in silver futures.

The banks reduced their collusive trading and their holdings in the futures market after a government investigation of silver futures manipulation began in March, according to the complaint filed by Laskaris, which seeks class-action status. Since the banks cut back on their silver futures trading, prices have increased about 50 percent, the suit alleges.

"These price changes directly result, at least in one substantial part, from defendants' reduction in their concentration and other reductions of their unlawful activities in the silver markets since the government investigation," according to the Laskaris complaint.

Comex Trades

Laskaris described himself as a New York resident who traded in silver futures and claims damages based on the collusion. The trades at issue in the complaint were made on the Commodity Exchange Inc. division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Laskaris said in the complaint. Beatty, a resident of Connecticut, makes the same claim.

Christopher Lovell, a lawyer representing Laskaris, didn't immediately return a call seeking comment after business hours yesterday.

Chilton spoke at an Oct. 27 hearing in Washington on regulations to implement the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, which became law in July and gave the commission a year to establish rules governing the $615 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.

Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
13 years ago
Oct 27, 2010 22:01
Bill Gross Calls Fed Most Brazen Of All Ponzi Schemes, Says 30 Year Bond Market Is Ending, Compares US Economy To Black Hole

Whatever the conclusion, not only investors, but the American people should recognize that Wednesday, even more than Tuesday, represents a critical inflection point in determining our future prosperity. Of course weve tried it before, most recently in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, during which the Fed wrote $1.5 trillion or so in checks to purchase Agency mortgages and a smattering of Treasuries. It might seem a tad dramatic then, to label QEII as critical, sort of like those airport hucksters, I suppose, that sold whale blubber for a living. But two years ago, there was the implicit assumption that the U.S. and its associated G-7 economies needed just an espresso or perhaps an Adderall or two to get back to normal. Normal just hasnt happened yet, and economic historians such as Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have since alerted us that countries in the throes of delevering can take many, not several, years to return to a steady state.


The Feds second round of QE, therefore, more closely resembles an attempted hypodermic straight to the economys heart than its mood elevator counterpart of 2009. If QEII cannot reflate capital markets, if it cant produce 2% inflation and an assumed reduction of unemployment rates back towards historical levels, then it will be a long, painful slog back to prosperity. Perhaps, as a vocal contingent suggests, our paper-based foundation of wealth deserves to be buried, making a fresh start from admittedly lower levels. The Fed, on Wednesday, however, will decide that it is better to keep the patient on life support with an adrenaline injection and a following morphine drip than to risk its demise and ultimate rebirth in another form.
http://www.pimco.com/Pages/RunTurkeyRun.aspx
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Oct 13, 2010 1:51
In Thread: JPY
Commodities Price Surge May Be Fueled by Japan

Proposals to throw part of Japan's trillion-dollar cash pile into securing overseas natural resources raises the stakes in a global battle for strategic assets and the power that comes with them.

If the world's second-biggest hoarder of foreign currency reserves were to use chunks of that money to buy scarce global commodities, it could propel resource prices skyward, stoke world inflation and lead countries to put up more barriers to such capital.

(This was on CNBC today, but the forum software keeps rejecting the link I paste!)
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Oct 13, 2010 1:39
In Thread: USD
"Based on the net speculative positions in the USD there is a 100% chance (based on past occurrences) that the dollar will rally from here. According to a report today from Credit Suisse the US dollar has rallied 100% of the time from these levels on a 3 month basis. On a 1, 2 and 6 month basis it has rallied 80% of the time:"
http://pragcap.com/is-the-dollar-rally-about-to-kill-risk-assets
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Sep 24, 2010 17:54
Anybody else think this could be a half-baked idea?

" Eliminating stop-loss orders may be one of the steps regulators will take in an attempt to prevent another so-called flash crash, according to a white paper published Friday. Analysts at Themis Trading identified four major recommendations that they believe Securities and Exchange Commission staff will make in response to the events of May 6. Most notably, they said, officials may want to scrap stop-loss orders. "[Stop-loss] orders were not the cause of the flash crash per se, but they resulted in enormous damage to many unsuspecting traditional investors. The SEC has indicated that it may require market order 'collars,' effectively converting market orders into limit orders," they wrote."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-may-abolish-stop-loss-orders-analysts-2010-09-24
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Sep 18, 2010 16:26
In Thread: USD
Error correction, I placed it under the Dollar topic, obviously! I tried to paste the link, but the forum software wouldn't take it, it is on CNS.
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Sep 18, 2010 16:24
In Thread: USD
I place this article under the Euro since it accounts for such a huge volume of pairs:

Europeans Push Global Forex Treading Tax to Fund Poverty-Reduction

A group of 60 nations will meet next week at the United Nations to push for a tax on foreign currency transactions as a way to generate revenue to meet global poverty-reduction goals, including climate change mitigation.

Spearheaded by European Union countries, the so-called innovative financing proposal envisages a tax of 0.005 percent (five cents per $1,000), which experts estimate could produce more than $30 billion a year worldwide for priority causes.

Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 20:58
In Thread: JPY
This is an article related to Ashraf's post regarding the China-Japan tension and maneuvering:


Yen Intervention Fans Flames Of Anti-Japanese Rage Across China


Anti-Japanese rage reached the highest level in years last night in China, says The Standard:
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=13&art_id=103008&sid=29601951&con_type=1

In Guangzhou, protestors hurled beer bottles at the Japanese consulate. In Tianjin, they damaged Japanese buildings and fired ball bearings at a foreign school. In Hong Kong, activists stormed the Japanese consulate.

Even Beijing has endorsed massive protests this weekend.

Anti-Japanese sentiment has to do with a captured fishing boat and territorial protests -- but it also coincides with a yen intervention that will challenge China's export advantage.

American politicians are already siding with Japan. Rep. Sander Levin today said Chinese currency policies caused the Yen intervention, which in turn hurts American exports.

What we really don't want to see, however is an escalating currency war, which could force a dollar intervention and all sorts of chaos.

Read more:http://www.businessinsider.com/yen-intervention-fans-flames-of-anti-japanese-rage-across-china-2010-9#ixzz0ziwvJcb8
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 3:27
In Thread: JPY
Ashraf, thanks for that extremely interesting post, much food for thought, and this geopolitical theory merits further investigation. And all of this is also a great reminder of just how difficult it is for a central bank to control the destiny of its own currency, forex is such a huge market and not easily manipulated for anything but a short period.