Posts by "speculator"

FX handler thanks. I am a long term currency investor. At the time when I posted my dollar to rally 4cast in late 2009, most of the banks were calling for a weaker dollar. Also in q1 i warned about the heavy hedge fund speculation against pound and euro and that this should not be taken lightly...a few months later the trend extrapolates.

There will be little reason to buy euro and pound against the dollar for 2010. The only way this could change is interest rates in UK/Euro to rise at a faster pace than in US. I doubt these central banks will raise inetrest rates at this time.

The pound is HIGHLY likely to breach 1.35 against the dollar this time round although i am not certain of it.

My theory since 2008:

1- risk collapses as liquidity contracts and corportate insolvencies are fears

2 - markets collapse

3- central banks come in and rescue

4 - investors starts to regain confidence and pile in money

5 - risk becomes overbought over a short period

6 - the dirty work of the central bank starts to show

7 - risk collapses

8 - who will sort out the debts and fiat issues now?

9 - markets and risk decline over a longer period as investors find little reason to take much risk as there APPEARS to be no remedy for the disease in the system

10 - result is above average inflation and wage stagnation and higher taxes

11 - economies barely improve and unemployment remains high for several more years

euro will certainly reach 1.18 by july latest and cable 1.42

euro will now face a long term decline albeit with short lived rallies along the way.

euros rise in the weekend will create a perfect slump later on in the week.