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Posts by "stationdealer"

750 Posts Total by "stationdealer":
666 Posts by member
Stationdealer
(London, United Kingdom)
84 Posts by Anonymous "stationdealer":
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
7 years ago
Sep 6, 2012 17:08
In Thread: EUR
Well noted by JPM.

To truly sterilize the ECB could:
(1) sell bonds out of its existing portfolio (but they're pretty much the same bonds they're planning on buying in)
(2) wait for existing holdings to mature (defeats the purpose again)
(3) sell other asset holdings i.e. gold (but that creates a relatively low upper limit for intervention)
(4) unwind LTRO funding prior to the 12mth anniversary. Perhaps. How many banks that took LTRO funds are now sitting on surplus cash at 0%? (i.e. have too much liquidity, and are eroding capital) Cutting the deposit rate below zero and releasing even more surplus cash into the system via bond purchases would strengthen the incentive. (only the ECB knows....)

Which leaves us with the less permanent options: a deposit facility or shorter-dated open market operations (i.e. repo out assets it is holding as a result of other monetary operations, such as LTRO collateral). At the short end, they don't sterilize anything or change the risk profile materially - just change the name of the facility. However, if cash were to be locked away for the tenor of the bonds purchased, then perhaps those facilities would do the trick too. After all, what makes some things QE and other things not? A bond purchased will mature eventually (or can be sold), an overnight operation like a repo (or discount window loan) can be rolled indefinitely. The difference lies in where credit risk sits, and thus where capital is required. That's what will drive the impact on the broader economy
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
7 years ago
Aug 13, 2012 11:29
In Thread: EUR
Its more fun shorting/longing GBPCHF with invert relations to EURGBP
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
9 years ago
Nov 10, 2010 10:53
Any seller in gold toady. Already stuck from 1389, I've decided to sell heavy from 1415 as i dont believe this can last long in the temporary short term momentum, environment. Till the Fed announces the measures to the next QE i think dollar pretty much will stay afloat and competitive for a while.

So selling from here long term is easy its not that its gonna hit 2000 without testing this years low of 1044 and pretty mush momentum close to running out. So if any one has any sense let in then they hold gold etf's carry the sellers leg down. cuz after the currency war is over its going to be commodity wars. Which we can see already showing some early signs.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
9 years ago
Oct 25, 2010 12:06
In Thread: GBP
GBP needs another correction phase down in my opinon to start its up leg up to 170 175. So stay calm if your GBP bull and very cautious of any little movment onto the up side. I agree with Ashraf sentiment of 14070 for Euro's test of resistance and need be to believe else wise keep close eyes on the earning season.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Oct 19, 2010 11:35
In Thread: USD
I see the on going pressure of dollar strength momentum now we can have a nice reversal and hopefully continuation of long in euro and GBP. So long EU and GBp and if momentum breaks further lets get in for the 3rd leg of down side move. Not yet sure about Yen so far as it may react the swisse when SNB was intervening probably not as huge as swisse effect but surely some what of an effect that will confuse traders.

Metals on the other hand I hold short near term. Oil another weak base commodity back of dollar roll over. Mean while S&P, Nasdaq and Dow do make good indicators at whole a picture of the american economy, wait till the M3 data will be received next month.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Oct 15, 2010 18:59
In Thread: USD
one think for sure USDx is not gaining any favors and becoming highly volatile. Tech sec instead of pointing fingers at Yuan manipulation they should focus more on their dollar.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Oct 15, 2010 18:56
In Thread: USD
and if it break further lower 73 and next target will be 68-69. If Ben is playing his cards right i think we will have very good indication of it happening well before the new trends start.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Oct 15, 2010 18:54
In Thread: USD
Right now dollar is only materializing other crosses on its way to bottoming our where ever it would be my guess was 76 77 so were not far from there, So far trading very easy and very competitive. Later this year's end will give us an interesting picture
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Oct 15, 2010 17:08
In Thread: USD
So the banks baring hedges on currencies will have a good effect on dollar many months later when they want to shift all gain back in to USD by the end of next quarter next year.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Oct 15, 2010 16:51
In Thread: USD
Well i believe the strategy should based upon simple supply and demand. around X-mass banks believe that there will more money made by retail sector industry in Europe than in UDS, so for that reason focus right now is shift recover from EUrope. America for the first time is understanding what cash mean.
I will say again important things is to follow Money supply M3 and corresponding instruments. That way u will have better gauge to understand inflation where its headed next which i think is China, Japan already struggling. China on the other hand bare some what of inflation pressure because of their reserves held with US banks.