EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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London, UK
July 30, 2010 13:15 ET
John, yes i see cable below 1.50 before yearend but not above 1.65
Ashraf"
CAN YOU PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW YOUR SO CERTAIN OF A DIP TO 150
WHAT ARE THE REASONS ?
MEANWHILE 160 FOR CABLE HOLDS AS A FIRM RESISTANCE THAT WILL NOT BREAK FOR NOW.
IF I KEEP THINGS SIMPLE I CAN VERY EASY TO SHORT AND HOLD POUND FOR 155/154 THAT WE WILL HIT BY NEXT MONTH. UP SIDE IS LIMITED LIKE WISE LOOK FOR 128 SUPPORT FOR EURO AGAIN. NFP THIS WEEK.
by Rocky Vega
The US Mint has had trouble keeping up with precious metal coin demand for most of this year, and it now appears the investigation into why thats the case may also consider the economics of penny and nickel production.
The US House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy has been looking into why there are backlogs at the Mint, especially with proof and uncirculated coins, and what can be done to improve the production process.
For quite some time its been easy to find disclaimers such as this on the US Mint website: Due to the continued, sustained demand for American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins, 2009-dated American Eagle Gold Proof Coins were not produced. The bullion coins are made available through authorized dealers and not directly through the Mint.
Mineweb has more details:
[Director of the U.S. Mint Edmond] Moy told the subcommittee uncertainty surrounding traditional investments and inflation concerns drove investor demand for bullion precious metals in all forms to exceptional highs in 2009.
As a result, the agency did not mint and issue what Moy called the very popular American Eagle One-Ounce Proof Gold and One-Ounce Proof Silver Coins in 2009.
Although bullion coin demand seemed to be subsiding earlier this year, in May, the Mint experienced an increase in orders for silver bullion coins to over 3.6 million coins. In fiscal year 2009, bullion coins sales reached an all-time high of $1.7 billion, nearly 80% above the sales of fiscal year 2008.
The Chairman of the Subcommittee, Congressman Melvin Watt (D-NC), is interested in diverting some of the precious metal coin blanks allocated for bullion coin production to supplement needs for numismatic coin production.
Separately, Director Moy also griped that, with regard to the one-cent and five-cent coins, never before has the nation spent more to mint and issue a circulating coin than its legal value. This problem is needlessly wasting hundreds of millions of dollars.
Dr. Ron Paul (R-TX) disagrees with the Watt and Moy perspectives because the Mint should not be gaining any additional power to decide the metal makeup of coins in circulation. Here is his language verbatim, again from the Mineweb article:
We could not maintain the gold standard nor the silver standard. We could not maintain the copper standard, and now we cannot even maintain the zinc standard, Paul noted. Paper money inevitably breeds inflation and destroys the value of currency.
Moy brings up a valid point. The US is spending more to produce pennies and nickels than they are worth. However, Dr. Paul recognizes the greater problem is the eroding value of US legal tender, one that isnt showing any signs of abating. You can read more details in Mineweb coverage of bullion and coin dealers calling for an investigation into the US coin blanks supply.
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Optimism (short term bearish)
Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish)
Short Term Trend: Up
Medium Term Trend: Down
Long Term Trend: Down
% of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 60.6%/+9%
% of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average/Daily Change: 76.7%/+11%
Market Update:
Market Closing Price % Change
Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) 10,525 +0.97%
S&P 500: 11115 +1.1%
Gold: $1183 -0.5%
Oil: $78.96 -0.03%
VIX: 22.7 -3.2%
Shanghai Comp: 2588 +0.65%
A short squeeze is just at hand as markets pushed higher yesterday on the strength of good new home sales and FedEx upping their forecast going forward. I say good home sales because while the number came in better than expected it was the 2nd lowest number dating all the way back to 1963 and so, to my mind, didnt seem to offer too much to cheer about.
Today well get data more data from the housing market with the Case/Shiller Index due at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time and July Consumer Confidence at 10:00. Also before the market open well see earnings reports from BP
Today the S&P 500 closed above its 200 Day Moving Average for the first time since late June where it managed to hold that level until declining approximately 9% into the recent lows in early July. A few days above this point and marginally higher closes will force out many shorts and likely lead to still higher prices.
Meanwhile I was out of pocket for a few days, but realized Barclays had the temerity to launch a new VIX ETN. Not only that, but this new volatility product is the first inverse VIX ETN to hit the market. It goes by the formal name of Barclays ETN+ Inverse S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN and has a ticker of XXV.
Frankly, there are a lot more questions than answers for XXV at this stage. My initial impression, however, is a positive one. Both VXX and XXV are ideally suited for the day trading crowd and are useful for swing trades of several days or so. As far as longer holding periods are concerned, I am partial to XXV over VXX, as XXV should benefit from the same term structure rebalancing anomalies that have plagued VXX and have resulted in negative roll yield. In the case of XXV, the daily portfolio balancing should be a net plus over the course of long-term holding periods.
VXX Calls Attracting Interest
Since their launch just two months ago, options on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) have attracted a robust following and have averaged about 20,000 contracts per day. During that period, approximately 2/3 of the VXX options transactions have involved calls.
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/07/vxx-calls-attracting-interest.html
Im sure there is a rumor of a high-profile stress test failure, but havent heard it yetdown as low as 1.2805 so farButt ugly and razor thin markets out there
so I guess, its a buy buy buy!!!!
Markets are hot and cold up and downbullish then bearish day to day. Until trends are established lighten up and adjust your trading size. Yesterday it appeared a close below the 50 day MA in Crude had prices poised to move lower but a late day rally allowed prices to hold that level; in September at $76.50. With dollar weakness, a rally in the indices, a tropical disturbance on the horizon and buying from China we could have a new leg higher. Unfortunately we advised energy traders to lighten up yesterday and now we will be likely re-entering on a dip at higher levels. A 61.8% retracement would carry prices in September to $83.75 in the coming weeks. Natural gas poked its head above the 100 day MA today. We continue to suggest purchasing October 50 cent call spreads. Irrational exuberance in equities today that we expect to be short lived with indices gaining 2-3% as of this post. As long as the 200 day MA caps rallies at 11103 we expect a move south from here. Clients continue to sell rallies and purchase September puts. Could this be the last gasp in sugar as October pushed 4.75% higher today approaching a 50% Fibonacci retracement. Traders note how much the front month moved relative to the next few contracts. On another 3-5% appreciation in coffee we will look to be a seller for clients. Even with soft housing numbers lumber gained nearly 4% today. We suggest a small long position thinking we get a bounce from here. Cattle on feed report tomorrow; traders who remain long December were advised to purchase inexpensive August puts as a hedge into tomorrows number. Look to trade the break out in gold; above $1200 or below $1180. September silver has bounced off the 200 day MA and managed a close back above the 100 day MA today gaining 1.6%. Aggressive futures traders stay long as long as $17.40 holds and option traders should continue to buy December call spreads. A failed rally in December corn had prices closing 10 cents off their highs. Look to be a buyer of December below $3.80. Likewise we are prepared to get clients long soybeans and soy meal from lower levelssee previous posts. All our clients gains in the Euro and Swissie from yesterday were given back today?? Clients remain short the Euro via options and the Swiss franc via futures and options.
We already knew QE is inevitable and I have been ranting about it all along, so you know stocks knee jerk reactions are over now. Most brokers will be lifting up their skirts now to find themselves buyers at any level seen in the next couple of days. Interesting will be tomorrows Asian stocks reaction, how they react to the new trends.
Dollar will be favored to be dumped across the board in the next coming days, as soon as offshore account start their short termed liquidity injections to curve trades in their favor. Inside trading will pick up and there will be no way to stop the liquidity ahead.
Markets will remain fairly predictable as long as you can discipline to work along with the wider macro. Look for sentiment to change and policy makers to come out to make more useless statements.