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100 Posts Total by "usikpa":
79 Posts by member
usikpa
(Moscow, Russia)
21 Posts by Anonymous "usikpa":
 
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usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
8 years ago
Jan 10, 2016 22:31
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
In reply to oldgreywhistletest's post
Every price below 30 is unsustainable. 13 must be some long term very bad scenario target, isn't it?
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
8 years ago
Jan 9, 2016 19:28
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
In reply to Rob's post
In his book Ashraf points out that the ratio has never been higher than 35 (since an ounce of Gold was selling for USD 35 and a barrel of oil was selling for USD 1 - 1.50). Later on , back in 1973 it hit 34. So, if GC keeps above USD 1000 at least, mathematically oil should't be below 30.

Another interesting observation of his is that four of the five US recessions were preceded by a rapid decline of the ratio to the bottom of the range (8-10).
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
12 years ago
Sep 6, 2012 19:58
In Thread: Draghi Buys Bonds, Fed Buys Time
Ashraf,

How can they keep sterilizing SMP 1 + LTRO1 +LTRO2 +"unlimited" when they just lowered the ER deposit rate recently?
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
12 years ago
May 16, 2012 18:58
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Ashraf,

Still hoping to hear out your answer. As my arabic isn't great, would appreciate your view of the bigger picture in English either here or elsewhere. As VIX goes over 40 next week, would you be a buyer of equities (risk assets) then or rather wait it out till August - September?
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
12 years ago
May 2, 2012 6:36
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
VIX > 40
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
12 years ago
May 2, 2012 6:35
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Ashraf,

Just a question for you, as I listen very carefully to what you have to say (and I gather you usually have much more to say than on these forums :()

People in the know suggest that we are, basicaly, guaranteed to see VIX =ᡠ this month.

Would you be a buyer of equities then?

Thank you
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
12 years ago
Mar 28, 2012 14:48
In Thread: EUR
Ashraf,

When do you expect the China hard landing to kick in on Euro?
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
12 years ago
Mar 22, 2012 20:37
In Thread: German PMI Shrugs Ifo & ZEW
Of the three, PMI is the best in terms of tracking GDP.
IFO is a good measurement of business expectations, considered a fairly good prediction of the brent oil price
ZEW is just another opinion by the likes of you and me. Goldman economics team has long 'downgraded' it
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
12 years ago
Jan 29, 2012 20:50
In Thread: Stocks Thump Yields as Growth Looks on
Ashraf, your post on S.A. went up uncorrected
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jan 27, 2012 21:56
In Thread: Stocks Thump Yields as Growth Looks on
Ashraf,
It would appear to me the below should read as follows:

"As long as the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England continue to FLATTEN their own yield curves via LTROs, Operation Twist and QE3 respectively..."

Operation twist and LTRO have nothing to do with instigating inflation, one would presume...

Would be interested to know your view given that macro data out of the US is very much likely to deteriorate (word has it so) next month
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