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Posts by "usikpa"

100 Posts Total by "usikpa":
79 Posts by member
usikpa
(Moscow, Russia)
21 Posts by Anonymous "usikpa":
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Jan 27, 2012 21:56
Ashraf,
It would appear to me the below should read as follows:

"As long as the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England continue to FLATTEN their own yield curves via LTROs, Operation Twist and QE3 respectively..."

Operation twist and LTRO have nothing to do with instigating inflation, one would presume...

Would be interested to know your view given that macro data out of the US is very much likely to deteriorate (word has it so) next month
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Sep 29, 2011 22:17
Ashraf, Dave, Oshun123

Thank you for your replies and comments.

Dave, your two points are well taken. These are the times to stay nimble and try to preserve rather than make huge bets.

And, Ashraf, no, thats not too long term (say, by the FOMC meeting in December?..)
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Apr 15, 2011 10:16
cat0nip,

It will take time.

One can see that S&P has already taken notice of no "huge reconstruction" orders coming in from Japan untill they figure out how much of their scarce island space they have left suitable for further living and reconstructing. They have a Chernobyl on their hands to deal with. Their choice so far was to subject their population (and the globe) to great dangers

The FED has violated No Ponzi condition. Once market participants figure out that those staying on the sidelines AREN't coming in to pick up the baton any time soon, equity markets shall become vulnerable
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Apr 15, 2011 10:02
I can see that now, Ashraf
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Apr 15, 2011 8:17
Market News international fx-related feed is also available on the other well established and followed forex related web site (you can find it easily just looking up the shorty awards runner ups in the finance category).

Their feed is though more focused on the analysis of the actual macro data and FED/ECB official speeches, I don't remember them post anything oil or SPX pivot point / support/resistance related. Not that one can not find it elsewhere on the internet but of course you always need time for that.

IT IS very surprising to me though that people (seemingly) don't take advantage of this readily available analysis (one can always draw his own conclusions, but valuable information is there).
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Mar 31, 2011 7:14
Unfrotunately, I can nothing but agree with cat0nip, and reiterate myself two weeks ago.

Only the complacent few can trade in these markets. The tree of outcomes is as wide now as never before

People with experience in Chernobyl say Fukushima is WORSE than Chernobyl and handled WORSE than by the Soviets in Chernobyl.

No truth is known for no one controls really the situation. Should prevailing winds change, a question arises how much of the Japanese soil will no longer be suitable for life once the dirty bomb has been put out.

Cesium from Fukushima has been registered in Ukraine (thats where Chernobyl is). And that is no mistake since it is a different isotope.

Supply disruptions for value added products from Japan are in line. Huge. And even when Japanese say they are ready to resume, no one will want it for contamination fears.
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Feb 23, 2011 8:51
In Thread: USD
I agree with Catnip, except for there is no such thing really as decoupling
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Feb 7, 2011 14:49
In Thread: USD
said, you mean yields?
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:23
In Thread: EUR
Guys, I know this is more of a phylosophical discourse, but...

Let us just suppose that ...
- ... in a month time, the core PCE price deflator bottoms out in the US and prints at 0,9 or 1 per cent, or ...

- ... February 9 (or is it 8) Ron Pauls congressional subcommittee (not so all of a sudden) clearly raises an issue with the FED's second mandate, or ...

- ... tomorrow, we have 250 thousand new jons in the US as a headline, or

- ... I know this means nothing to you yet but, still, given the latest FED's statement, we notice that the MARKET disagrees witht the FED, and the 10 year yields are on their way to 3.8%

... would you still go for 2 dollars per Euro?
usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 10:07
In Thread: EUR
Catnip,

PBOC is on holiday since yesterday. Rather telling are the short term rates on bunds. WHy is that?