This thread was started in response to the Article:

Loonie's Falling Downside by: Ashraf Laidi
Posted: March 2, 2009 ET
Comments: 22
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trond, i dont follow those stocks.

Smundy, USDCAD selloff is intense. It could go to the 1.1670 low if S&P can close above 900. 1.1450 is the next target if you think the bear market is over.

Ashraf

Ashraf,

Based on my previous analysis posted on April 9th, it does look as if the Canadian has in fact broken out to the downside. With the Negative correlation between Equities and the Canadian, I can see a test against a low set back on Jan 6th 2009 at 1.1755, which it hit this morning. However, due to the continued run up in equities and the target of 950 looming (S&P), this support level may be a wet paper bag, thus pushing the Canadian down to the 1.1530 Fib level. With a possibility of hitting the low set in November 5th 2008 at 1.1458. Your feed back in much appreciated.

Thanks

I have some shares in Canadian copper and mining companies on the new york and amex stock exchange. Are there any Australian copper companies listed on these exchanges too? Then after your commentaries concerning Australia I'd consider them.

FARZAN, sorry didnt see your message earlier. USDCAD fell on accumulated gains in risk appetite. Stocks may pass the test of 30% rally from their lows, making this the biggest bear market rally, but will they pass the 2-month test?

SMUNDY: USDCAD gains on positive trade data from US and CAN as well as stocks pushing to 7mth highs. USDCAD major support at 1.2209--Trend Line support from the October lows. I continue to have a negative bias in CAD.

Ashraf

Ashraf,

The USDCAD seems to be teetering on the brink of a downside breakout drawn from mid Oct 2008...even though Canuck economic data seems to be negative for the currency, equities seem to be propping up the CAD. If the S&P continues to rally, at least to the 875 level, the loonie looks like a possible 1.1990 candidate?

Thanks

Hi Ashraf,

Bought your book yesterday and just started reading it and just have a couple questions on the Canadian dollar. The job data which showed that Canada lost 82K job however the Canadian dollar didn't go down as expected; is it because of the strong correlation between the EUR/USD & USD/CAD?

In the near short term do you see that Canadian dollar go down to $1.24 and below area due to the two month cycle in the equities market?

Pipples, my latest article signalled a peak in the dollar. And so did today's HotChart. Read the latest Intraday Market Thought on USDX, EURUSD and GBPUSD and AUDSD.

Ashraf

Hmmm... GBP symbol doesn't show in my comment posts for some reason! Is the pound THAT bad!!!

Thanks for the reply. After today, could CHF now make sense as a cash store (from ) or think the Swiss are just getting started? Is this the end of its perceived 'safe haven' status? With the so weak against everything right now it's hard to spot a currency that clearly makes sense to swap to.

Pipples, NOKto continue rallying as long as stocks advance.. If you have enough margin then you can go ahead and buy NOK at these levels..but with sufficient cushion.long AUDCHF remains great mediumto long term trade.Also consider CAD shorts at these levels. Friday's CAD jobs report should be ugly.

Ashraf