EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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The advantages of using moving averages need to be weighed against the disadvantages. Moving averages are trend following, or lagging, indicators that will always be a step behind. This is not necessarily a bad thing though. After all, the trend is your friend and it is best to trade in the direction of the trend. Moving averages ensure that a trader is in line with the current trend. Even though the trend is your friend, securities spend a great deal of time in trading ranges, which render moving averages ineffective. Once in a trend, moving averages will keep you in, but also give late signals. Don't expect to sell at the top and buy at the bottom using moving averages. As with most technical analysis tools, moving averages should not be used on their own, but in conjunction with other complementary tools. Chartists can use moving averages to define the overall trend and then use RSI to define overbought or oversold levels.
Price Crossovers
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Moving averages can also be used to generate signals with simple price crossovers. A bullish signal is generated when prices move above the moving average. A bearish signal is generated when prices move below the moving average. Price crossovers can be combined to trade within the bigger trend. The longer moving average sets the tone for the bigger trend and the shorter moving average is used to generate the signals. One would look for bullish price crosses only when prices are already above the longer moving average. This would be trading in harmony with the bigger trend. For example, if price is above the 200-day moving average, chartists would only focus on signals when price moves above the 50-day moving average. Obviously, a move below the 50-day moving average would precede such a signal, but such bearish crosses would be ignored because the bigger trend is up. A bearish cross would simply suggest a pullback within a bigger uptrend. A cross back above the 50-day moving average would signal an upturn in prices and continuation of the bigger uptrend.
Gold Forecast
The next chart shows Emerson Electric (EMR) with the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA. The stock crossed and held above the 200-day moving average in August. There were dips below the 50-day EMA in early November and again in early February. Prices quickly moved back above the 50-day EMA to provide bullish signals (green arrows) in harmony with the bigger uptrend. MACD(1,50,1) is shown in the indicator window to confirm price crosses above or below the 50-day EMA. The 1-day EMA equals the closing price. MACD(1,50,1) is positive when the close is above the 50-day EMA and negative when the close is below the 50-day EMA.
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Moving averages smooth the price data to form a trend following indicator. They do not predict price direction, but rather define the current direction, though they lag due to being based on past prices. Despite this, moving averages help smooth price action and filter out the noise. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). These moving averages can be used to identify the direction of the trend or define potential support and resistance levels. https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
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RIA Benchmarking Study Means
In our recent webinar, we spoke with Lisa Salvi, vice president of Business Consulting and Education for Schwab Advisor Services, to discuss the findings of the 2020 RIA Benchmarking Study and highlight the factors underlying that growth.
The Importance of a Strategic Plan
Currently in its 14th year, the RIA Benchmarking Study is one of the leading studies in the industry and features findings from 1,010 advisory firms representing $1.1 trillion in AUM.
Conducted between January and March of 2020, the study found that advisors started the year in a position of strength following the longest bull market in recent history. Surprisingly, many firms continued to see ongoing growth even during the worst periods of volatility in March.
“Advisors are used to innovating... and I think that’s one of the things in this COVID world that has helped to set them up for success,” explains Salvi, emphasizing that a keen focus on client experience has made a crucial difference during a period of extreme uncertainty. “We saw people pivot their business model very rapidly and serve their clients extraordinarily well throughout this time period.”
One of the biggest predictors of success for many firms has been a clear and actionable strategic plan. In fact, 75% of the top-performing firms in the study had these plans in place before the start of the pandemic and have been able to adapt to challenges more effectively as a result. According to Salvi, a comprehensive strategic plan should include a long-term vision, SWOT analysis, a purpose, and a value proposition. She also emphasizes that firms of all sizes can benefit from having one.
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
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Persona Targeting Can Yield Significant Results
To create those personas, firms need to take into account the demographic and psychographic characteristics of their ideal clients and understand what matters to those clients and what they value. For firms that are still in the early stages of growth, Salvi suggests that it’s okay to take on clients outside of those ideal personas, as long as there is some overlap with the key demographic they aim to serve.
A focused business model that focuses on ideal client personas and a strategic plan can give your firm a clear sense of direction and a predictable growth trajectory. Best of all, it can help you navigate periods of volatility and still come out on top.
In comparison, a front-end load carries charges paid when the shares are bought and a back-end load assesses charges when the investor sells shares; and no-load funds contain no commission charges at all, with the fees simply calculated into the net asset value (NAV) of the fund.
Class-C mutual fund shares charge a level sales load set as fixed percentage assessed each year.
This can be contrasted with front-load shares that charge investors at time of purchase and back-end loads that charge at time of sale.
Because the annual fee can compound investor cost over time, this class of fund is best-suited for those looking to hold fund shares for periods of 3 years or less.
The Basics of Class C Shares
Compared to other mutual fund share classes, class C shares often have lower expense ratios than class B shares. However, they have higher expense ratios than class A shares. Expense ratios are the overall annual management costs of running a mutual fund. As a result, Class C shares may be a good option for investors with a relatively short-term horizon, who plan to keep the mutual fund for just a few years.
The ongoing charges that constitute the C-share level load are officially known as 12b-1 fees, named from a section of the Investment Company Act of 1940. Total 12b-1 fees are capped at 1% annually. In this 1% fee, distribution and marketing expenses can be up to 0.75%, while service fees max out at 0.25%. Although designated for marketing, the 12b-1 fee primarily serves to reward intermediaries who sell a fund's shares. In a sense, it's a commission paid by the investor to the mutual fund every year, instead of a transactional one https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
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Other mutual fund share classes come with 12b-1 fees too but to different degrees. Those fees charged to class A shares usually are lower, compensating for the high upfront commissions this category pays. C-shares tend always to pay the maximum 1% and, since 12b-1 fees figure into the mutual fund's overall expense ratio, their presence can push that annual expense ratio above 2% for the class C-shareholder.
Unlike A-shares, class C shares do not have front-end loads, but they often carry small back-end loads, officially known as a contingent deferred sales charge (CDSC), just as class B shares carry. However, these loads for C shares are much smaller, typically only around 1%, and they usually vanish once the investor has held the mutual fund for a year.
Who Should Invest in Class C Shares?
Because of the back-end load charged on short-term redemptions, investors who plan to withdraw funds within a year may want to avoid C-shares. On the other hand, the higher ongoing expenses associated with C-shares make them a less-than-ideal option for long-term investors.
The differences in final values of investments with varying fees can be immense when held for a substantial period—say, in a retirement fund. For instance, take a $50,000 investment in a fund that returns 6% and charges annual operating fees of 2.25%, that is held for 30 years. The final amount the investor will receive will equal $145,093.83. A fund with the same amount invested and the same annual returns, but with yearly operating fees of 0.45% will offer the investor significantly more, with a final value of $250,832.55.
Class C shares would work best for investors planning to keep the fund for a limited, intermediate period, optimally more than one year but less than three. That way, you hold on long enough to avoid the CDSC, but not so long that the high expense ratio will take a major toll on the fund's overall return.
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