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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 21, 2008 1:37
Comments: 525
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

Speculators' Futures FX Positions

The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
 
Rama
New York, United States
Posts: 5
14 years ago
May 29, 2009 15:36
Thanks Ashraf for your insight in regard to long AUD/CHF. I agree with your assessment that for a long term investor AUD/USD is a better bet.

What's your view about long CAD/USD - energy play. Plus it seems CAD has a better account and fiscal balance than compared to USD? Or you think this has been played out. Is there any upside for a long term investor in this pair?
mo
liverpool, UK
Posts: 123
14 years ago
May 29, 2009 14:30
Hello Ashraf

Following your comment the pace of the decline in USDCAD from 1.30 to 1.10 in 13 weeks was rapid, but as rapid as the rise from the 1.0580 low in October to the 1.3020 high in October, which lasted only 4 weeks

But when the Usd/cad reached 1.302 in October it was followed by correction of 1500 pips, do you see the same thing happening now upon USD reach 1.08-1.03 level.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
May 29, 2009 12:21
Rama, buying Aussie and Kiwi against USD and JPY remains better trade than against CHF because of the DECLINE in USDCHF. ie CHF has held up better against AUD and NZD than did USD. the sell USD trade remains overwhelming and FX traders must take advantage of this free lunch. Nof of course, with every retreat in stocks we see a retreat in AUDUSD and NZDUSD BUT these pullbacks have probven time and again to be shortlived. s i said many many times on this site, stay long Aussie vs USD is the best buy and hold strategy in FX.

Ashraf
Rama
New York, United States
Posts: 5
14 years ago
May 29, 2009 11:59
Thanks Ashraf for your view on the carry trades (Long AUD and NZD & Short USD or JPY). How about AUD/CHF and/or NZD/CHF? There is a speculation that SNB has intervened in the FX market to weaken the franc.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
May 28, 2009 16:51
Rama, Indeed. Buying NZD and AUD vs USD and JPY strategy is re-affirmed. Keep on pyramiding upwards.

Ashraf
Rama
New York, United States
Posts: 5
14 years ago
May 28, 2009 16:17
Any view on "Carry Trade is Coming Back" - especially NZD versus JPY. New Zealand just getting a rating asgency upgrade plus yen is getting weaker.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
May 27, 2009 22:53
bubbles, today's retreat in EURUSD and AUDUSD is a decent entry opportunity for that long term buy.

Ashraf
bubbles
Vancouver, Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 27, 2009 22:41
disagreement is good. this idea may never pan out. i know i want to park some money here. mathmatically the risk is contained and the potential reward is attractive. the margins for controlling 1m dollars is only .00125%. hard to find lower rates than that. is anybody out there taking this trade?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
May 27, 2009 15:18
bubbles, im afraid i disagree with you about being long USD based on Fed raising rates. The Fed is finding ways to purchase bonds to keep yields down. this is largely negative for the dollar. you'll be waiting for a long time.

Ashraf
bubbles
Vancouver, Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 27, 2009 14:27
Rezz i'm parking some cash in the eurodollar contract just incase the fed is forced to raise interest rates down the road. The risk is fixed since the contract cannot go beyond 100, and the reward could snowball depending on global events that are out of the feds control. the trade has a defensive begining with the potential to become offensive in my opinion. time will tell. what do you think?