EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
In 2007/08 Saudi Arabia could not pump enough oil to keep oil prices down. China went on the oil market in June/July 2008 with an extra 800 kb/d to avoid shortages during the Olympic Games. That broke the camel's neck.
Cumbuco, 5% yields are inevitable in 1-2 years.
Many asked about interest rates, yields and bonds. Here's one way to brush up on this stuff
http://www.federalreserveeducation.org/fed101_html/policy/money_print.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AzdQNKkonc&feature=related
Ashraf
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/03/interest_rates.html
"Yields are now near the highest levels we've seen since the Lehman failure in September 2008, and if they continue to move up at their recent pace I wouldn't want to dismiss it as an irrelevant development."
Some great insights in the comments section as well, including speculation regarding rising yields along with rising equities.
"What equity investors will not like is a "100yr flood" in the yield curve steepness. That is, if rates rise quickly while ZIRP is still in effect -- creating a 300bp+ 2/10yr spread -- then the market will be "surprised" by a negative development. Rate-sensitive sectors of the economy may be so negatively affected as to jeopardize the overall recovery. This is a recipe for a steep equity market correction."
Ashraf, I'm interested in any comments you might have...
At what point does a USDJPY rally on the weekly or monthly chart get your attention vis-a-vis the US Rate Hike Anticipation idea you mentioned in the last chapter of your book?
bojan, i was initiallythinking a revaluation could happen this year but w/ their monetary policy tightening being stepped out, a revaluation might be too much for them. keep an eye on the US side of the story and whether obama starts off a currency war.
Ashraf
here is what George Sorros thinks;
is it in the best interest of the chinese to let the yuan to float?
yes, that would be appropriate for the chinese to do now but for domestic and international reasons.
will they?
it remains to be seen. they do not like to be told. i am only observing, not advising. they do not like to be pushed.
b.
at my opinion the timing will depend how yield in US tresury will behave. With the liquidity in the pipeline absorb by china and japan one has to understand that chinese monetary policy and the fixing of its currency to the dollar is totally dependant of the tenure in US treasury. its a well kept secret on both side of the pacific.
Scrutinize the US productivity level for the next weeks months that might be helpful to time the decision if decison there will be.
Lately there is more and more talk about Chinese Yuan, and it's "unavoidable" appriciation on the market. I started thinking about it after I heard this;
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- China will probably let its currency appreciate by at least 5 percent in a one-time move and raise interest rates to cool the economy and curb inflationary pressures, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jim ONeill said. --it will definitely happen, and it can happen any day !
It would be good to hear your thoughts on this, and what would be the best way to play it (ETF's)
Thank You
b.
rgrds
Adam