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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 31, 2008 20:40
Comments: 114
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart

Daily chart of 14 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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rajesh68
Singapore
Posts: 60
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 16:29
I wonder how ignorant I am. Thanks Courg and Spec for educating us. Keep it up
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 16:15
cougr,

thanks so im not crazy then!

the dollar is due a reversal on the upside. watch and see.

i predicted a large and multi year fall in the dollar back in 2002 when i wrote my economics dissertation at university.

if i was doing the same again, i would be predicting the reverse!

as you can see, im not a trader but more of an economist so our opinions may be different.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 16:10
Spec ,if the dollar can mount a comeback and close above and sustain itself beyond the highs of this year ( I think it was somewhere in the 88s or 89s ) then I think there would be a serious argument from a technical standpoint to back your suggestion . There is one other consideration that perhaps adds some weight to your assertion and that is that the dollar in the past has resonated with a 5 to 7 year cycle.So considering that its previous top was in 2001 we are definitely due for a cycle where the dollar has an upwards trajectory for several years. Many cycle proponents are aware of this and would be backing your argument.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 15:45
the bottom for USDx was 2008 we are more likely to see strength in the index for a quite a while at least based on my macroeconomic analysis.

as we enter H2 doubts over global recovery will increase sending dollar quite a bit higher. traders and investors probably over reacted to the more positive news last quarter and this is likely to lead to risk reallocation.

cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 15:38
Spec, no one , it's all about probabilities .
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 15:28
cougr, well who says the anomaly wont happen again?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 15:21
thks cougr, Aussie now looking for 0.7920 and 0.7860. Possible entry opportunity for longs in 0.78

Ashraf
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 15:19
Spec ,you are right but in any type of correlation between trends , you will have anomalous periods or situations . If there was no variance in the corellation coefficients between trends I'd be a multi millionaire .
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 15:03
cougr yes one decade may not be adequate as i would conisder that is medium term. look into the 1990s and you will agree with me.

1996 to 2000 the USDX went up nicely and so did crude.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 14:41
Ashraf , regarding your prediction on the aussie from a few days ago , we're heading towards it quite rapidly. Good work .
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