Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Last week I reiterated to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group that indices will maintain their gains by repeating the July action of breaking above the 100 DMA for a few days, pull back to kiss it it before rallying anew and completing another +17%-18% run from the low to rest at the 200DMA. The chart was part of the slides of my presentation in Amman last week. Whether indices extend their gains for a Santa Rally, depends on next week's core PCE release as well as CPI (Dec 13th) and the Fed decision (Dec 14th). Next week's release of the Nov jobs report will be important but not as crucial as CPI and PCE. Putting "what if" scenarios aside, we stick with the tactical frameworks shared with the WBG as of early Nov.