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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1557
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
Sahid
irreductible, France
Posts: 464
3 months ago
May 27, 2014 14:39
In reply to djellal's post
igore still i the soufriere.or having a bomber lift.
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
3 months ago
May 14, 2014 11:27
In reply to djellal's post
Here we go the JPY' beachcomber
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
4 months ago
May 2, 2014 15:55
...the guy who use 1000-1 should give me his money. lol
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
4 months ago
Apr 16, 2014 23:32
US 10yr closed below its Channel support so don't confirm rebounds on US indexes. I think this short term rebounds on indexes are due to corporates earnings and big number of IPO there is this week.

I think if BOJ downgrades its april economics assessment that will put pressure on the Nikkei.
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
4 months ago
Apr 16, 2014 23:12
FXStreet (Bali) - On the back of a breakout of 102.10 resistance, Yujiro Goto, FX Strategist at Nomura, notes two headlines on the Japanese government supporting USD/JPY.

Key Quotes

"There were two interesting headlines today on the Japanese government and its policy stance: 1) the likely downgrading of the government’s economic assessment, and 2) the timing of the changes in the GPIF target portfolio."

"Nikkei reports that the Japanese government intends to downgrade its April economic assessment, scheduled to be announced on 17 April, as household consumption has been slowing after the sales tax hike."

"The likely downgrade could be a message from the government to the BOJ, that it sees more downside risks to the economy."

"As the downgrade will be minor, according to the report, it is too early to expect imminent economic stimulus from the BOJ and MOF, but expectations for BOJ easing could increase again after the downgrade, which is set for 17 April."

"Finance Minister Aso Wednesday said foreign investors may react to the GPIF move from June onwards, thus indicating the timing of the next changes in the GPIF target portfolio. We had judged that mid-year, as early as June, was the most likely timing of the announcement of the next target portfolio change, and Finance Minister Aso's comment today increases our confidence level. The update of the growth strategy, which is likely to include some form of corporate tax cut idea, and GPIF reform both expected in June, could support USDJPY and Nikkei toward H2 this year. "
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
4 months ago
Apr 15, 2014 12:11
Hi Ashraf,
What is up today ?

Timeframe on Eurjpy usdjpy chfjpy gbpjpy nzdjpy crosses: 1yr weekly chart (impressives divergences +boj wait and see mode (until 2015) same for bOE and FED...)

+ USDJPY short term (few days) neutral but I think is to short for the end of this week. (technical H&S)+ correlation S&P USDJPY 10yr are showing a beginning of a big correction which is unavoidable.


I don't see any major movements on the upside and I think that it's better to short each rebounds.
To night we have chinese GDP figure which will show a decrease. + Chinese PM told last week that 7% is enough for them.
This chinese GDP will be the best catalyst for Yen crosses.

Br,
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
4 months ago
Apr 15, 2014 1:15
In reply to djellal's post
BOJ - will probably have to do more, especially if the JPY weakens

BOE - will have to begin talking about raising rates, even if they don't actually move

FED - won't raise rates until 2016 unless we see a much better upturn in data, but will be tapered off, while Japan destroys the Yen

Unless there's a major stock correction of 15% or a major event, I don't see those levels coming up. Sentiment is neutral and perhaps leaning towards bullish.

We shall see
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
4 months ago
Apr 15, 2014 0:55
Djellal,

Interesting targets. Care to give a timeframe?

In the long term, yen crosses and yields are seen going down not up. But i still have a few longs in USDJPY for my personal account.

Higher confidence trades remain Aussie crosses and GBPUSD

Ashraf
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
4 months ago
Apr 15, 2014 0:24
BOJ (WAIT AND SEE POLICY)+ NO MORE QE

BOE (WAIT AND SEE POLICY) + INFLATION DOWNSIDE (SEE TOMORROW)

FED (WAIT AND SEE POLICY)+ BUT TAPERING

S&P IS STARTING A BIG CORRECTION 1750,00(BIG LEVEL)+ HAVE TECHNICAL BIG DIVERGENCE

YEN CROSSES HAVE TECHNICAL BIGS DIVERGENCES

US 10YR DOWNSIDE TREND TARGET 1.57

IT'S TIME TO SHORT EURJPY GBPJPY USDJPY FOR A BIG CORRECTION LIKE S&P.

ABOUT MY MONEY INDEED I HAVE BIG CLIENTS WHO FOLLOW ME
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
4 months ago
Apr 15, 2014 0:10
In reply to djellal's post
Wow djellal,

I see 180.00 in GBP/JPY, not 160.00 - barring any major geopolitical event.

Best of luck if your money is where your mouth is - mine is not - I just like to jump in and buy the dips for 30-50 pips a couple times a week.