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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:
GBP
Discuss GBP
daily close below 6380 could see test of recent lows and possible lower... if holds.. could see extension to 6680/6700...
Ashraf
Obama's current visit to UK going extremely well. He had the royal treatment yesterday after his visit to Ireland to witness old family roots and pep talk the people there. Today is biz where he joined the cabinet mtng at Downing Street. David Cameron and Obama very easy body language together, even flipping hamburgers together to feed the party in no 10 Downing Street garden. Most the talks are about foreign policy and I guess economic issues will also be addressed.
Obama is still held in high esteem generally amongst the brit population, middle england. That's not to say that middle england have much other than fresh air between their ears but the importance of the us/uk relationship is paramount imho. Obama gets the red carpet treatment where ere he go.
The comparisson between that old fart Gordon Brown and David Cameron is quite stunning and its good to no longer feel totally embarassed at all appearances Brown made on the international stage. Not only that but I fancy Samcam big time :-)
But here is the analysis BETWEEN THE LINE by MNI FX Bullets
UK DATA: Q1 GDP Unrevised at +0.5% q/q; +1.8% y/y; in line with median
--Q1 Household Spending -0.6% q/q; -0.3% y/y; largest q/q fall Q2 09
--Net trade adds 1.7pp to q/q growth largest since 1955
Two key areas which will attract attention.
First, household spending fell 0.6% q/q, the largest fall since Q2 09 showing just how households are being squeezed.
Second, net exports added 1.7 percentage points to q/q growth the largest contribution since
1955 a clear sign that Sterling's large devaluation is paying dividends and the economy starting to rebalance. With investment down 4.4% q/q (largest fall since Q2 09) the only leg the domestic economy remains standing on is govt. spending which was up 1% although this seems
unlikely to continue. Overall domestic spending fell 1.3% the largest fall since Q1 09, underlying just why the BOE is scare d to raise rates.
Get you subscription of MNI FX Bullets here:
http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/
Ashraf