EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Ashraf,
here is my question to trades that you issued a few days back.
You issued a long EURGBP long GBPUSD and then a short EURUSD with a stop at 1.3370.
Does this combination not show that these trades are completely contradictory? Long EURGBP and Long GBPUSD is effectively a long EURUSD. But there is also a short EURUSD. So what is going on with this combination of trades.
My problem was that I was taking these trades blindly and I have lost a lot. This is a lesson that from now on I will need to check every trade that Ashraf issues and be extremely cautious and selective.
Also you issued a short AUDUSD at .89xx with a target well under 8900. Stops at 8980 and 9170 all got stopped. Now my question is because Gold is bouncing off, can we not get a bit bullish Aussie? RBA is done with its cuts. China is rising again. Why are you still bearish Aussie? COT has all time high short specs. Does it not give you the impression that this is ready for a major squeeze ?
Am not the expert but you are so will be happy to take your advice.
Thank you Dave very much. I would be following your posts here. Do you put posts anywhere else?
Pull up your usdjpy daily chart:-
From the october 2011 low I see Wave 1 up to March 2012 high.
Wave 2 down to Sept 2012 low.
Wave 3 up to May 2013 high at 103.72.
Since that high we are seeing Wave 4 in progress.
My initial preferred count for Wave 4 was a symmetry target at c.91.60, or if extended at 88.90 or somewhere in between. For example 50% retracement of the wave 3 would fall at 90.42.
For reasons I will not expand upon I now have a preference for a Wave 4 triangle which is perfectly permissible within Elliott's rules.
Draw your triangle resistance line from the 103.72 high through the lower high at 101.52 made on the 8th July. Draw your triangle support line from the 93.78 low made on the 13th June through the 95.80 low made last week the 8th August. That low may be the wave 4 low and if price breaks through that then my first initial preferred count will become the high probability again.
I am thinking that price will continue up from here (current 98.10) to kiss the triangle resistance line and react down again to perhaps test the triangle support line. From there we will see wave 3 of wave 5 explode upwards to take out the 103.72 high. Wave 5 will likely extend up to c.108 to 110 to test the August 2008 high you will see on your weekly chart.
If Abenomics works for the fundamentals we shall be seeing 124's and 135's in our future. However Japan has ginormous downside risks so it's best to take one small step at a time in this game. Try to read the price patterns which repeat over and over again !
Hope this helps, gt, gl
I always advise traders who wish to follow a signal service to use it as a "learning" experience. Also keep leverage low, not greater than 2% of account exposure on all open positions at any given time. This means you may not have sufficient funds to take all trade signals and if you do not take all trade signals you are up against Murphy's Law for optimising annual results. i.e picking all the bummers and missing the great trades.
I will post seperately my thoughts on usdjpy after dins, wife calleth :-)
Thanks and you are right. You did read the AUDUSD absolutely right.
Just recent losses may have cost me and analysing my own trades, I think was overlevered on some of those trades. I guess wrong and right calls are all part of the game.
But that message of mine is way too brutal. I know not what possessed me to write that drivel :)
And it was never meant to be on the forum. So feel free to delete it as it serves no purpose at all. This is the first forum where I cant delete my own message :)
Dave great call on the usdyen pair short. I think you shorted it at 100. Can you tell me what your call will be now that it has come back to 98?
Best of luck
thanks
No need to delete. Everyone can read and make their own decision.
It's not the first time I issue a short when a pair reaches support. Clients will remember my shorting of AUDUSD in May when many criticized the idea of selling right at the 200-week MA.
It fell 900 pips after that.
There is also the notion of determining stopped out trades just because final targets were not hit to the final pip. Such as AUDJPY.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/premium/howtouse
Ashraf
Ashraf
What is the point offering a trade copier when you have lost so many pips over the last 4 months. I have made a myfxbook of the signals you have given over the last 4 months and I have lost 2300 pips. But I was selective. If I had taken all the signals I would have lost over 4000 pips. I do not trade GOLD so I do not about the. But purely forex signals have lost me 2000 pips at least.
What i have personally observed is that you are brilliant with central bank analysis but your trading system of looking at stochastics and their direction on weekly and monthly and then trading daily, is really not a great system.
But one of my friends was very happy with your signals in Jan 2013 and part of Feb when you made some 3000 odd pips.
So trade copier is not the solution but to first get the trading system right.
The current trade to short CADJPY was inexplicable trade. You shorted a pair right at its monthly support. Just see the history of your EURUSD trades.
So please help us. We are losing money.
Thanks
Merlyn