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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8744
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
9 days ago
Jan 30, 2016 18:34
In reply to Rob's post
is it forbidden to short any asset classes in the us?...especially indices.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
10 days ago
Jan 30, 2016 0:32
Can anyone tell me how to short indices while in the US? Thanks!
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
22 days ago
Jan 17, 2016 16:40
In reply to usikpa's post
i was expecting the CL to come testing the 27 level and thus creating an open triangle to come retesting the 67 dollars a barrel but after carefully reading of the chart and a too deep drawdown in price below the 44/43, i had favored a 333 patern closing at the 50 level the 4th of october

so yes the price of crude is underway toward unseen level since decades.
prices war will continue...till themergence of a financial center in saint petersburg...
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
22 days ago
Jan 17, 2016 16:34
In reply to usikpa's post
usikpa
russia ruble will melt down down the commodity rout and especially its main export component
by end march april i expect the price of barrel to come testing the 13/17 dollars.that said or we see the fed agressively raise rate to defend their financial system or stucture or the fed as stated hoffman in digi video will come with QE4 with fresh impetus on the commodity market, especially oil.
we might see a level of retracement for sure of 1733 points on S&P500 forthis semester but after as elliotician waves counter i dont rject he possibility of watching by third.fourh quarter the S&P breal=king the 1733 for testing the 1300.
watch well the usd/jpy and the rejection three time around the 124 level...like stated DAveO probably one morning japan will be downgraded or warned of downgrade and that will trigger the EM derout continuation.
or probably the rating agency will be mused down not tot issue this warning.
some money manager who got full stomach are too favorable for the japanese economy i dont believe them.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
29 days ago
Jan 10, 2016 22:31
In reply to oldgreywhistletest's post
Every price below 30 is unsustainable. 13 must be some long term very bad scenario target, isn't it?
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
29 days ago
Jan 10, 2016 11:02
In reply to usikpa's post
hi usikpa how are you?

long time...oil to set at the 13 dollars a barrel.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
30 days ago
Jan 9, 2016 19:28
In reply to Rob's post
In his book Ashraf points out that the ratio has never been higher than 35 (since an ounce of Gold was selling for USD 35 and a barrel of oil was selling for USD 1 - 1.50). Later on , back in 1973 it hit 34. So, if GC keeps above USD 1000 at least, mathematically oil should't be below 30.

Another interesting observation of his is that four of the five US recessions were preceded by a rapid decline of the ratio to the bottom of the range (8-10).
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
30 days ago
Jan 9, 2016 9:37
In reply to Rob's post
rob mind that 2017 will be thetime when fed will succeed to be onthe parh of attaining in inflation target and that GC will take off.
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
30 days ago
Jan 9, 2016 9:31
In reply to Rob's post
rob
since 2003 we are in a commodity supercycle and right now we are in the pause for the next phase of the this cycle.
oil and gold have moved in tandem with positive correlation so mind the importance of this long term line that is gonna be broken down a bit in the medium term.
my target of 827 dollars is accurate but we are gonna observe still a rout in commodities by year end with a possibly to see the GC goingto 1178 dollars an ounce on sian risk aversion.
as for oil mind that this year is gonna see the price of crude ending at less than 20 dollars a barrel.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
32 days ago
Jan 8, 2016 1:00
Ashraf,

Can you please explain the implications of the Gold/Oil ratio? I saw you tweeted about it, and my book of yours is buried somewhere - time to write a new one!

I see some possible serious moves with it - double-top in the 30's? Or it crashes straight through to all-time highs... If resistance holds, does CAD make a comeback? With this environment, and probably few if any rate hikes, I don't see gold going much lower. Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2016 is that oil rebounds (sharply)??

Thanks,
Rob (one of the original forum contributors :))