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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8929
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Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jun 10, 2011 19:23
MNI FX Bullets on talks of Saudi Output Hike


NYMEX July light sweet crude (WTI) continues to tumble, partly
on a lack of topside followthrough, partly on risk aversion, and partly
on a report in the al-Hayat newspaper stating that Saudi Arabia will
boost production in July to 10 million barrels per day (from 8.8mn in
May), traders say. The move by the Saudis was largely expected after the
lack of agreement at this week's OPEC meeting, they note. The front
contract holds at $99 per barrel, down from an earlier high of $102.15
and up from a low of $98.79. In May, crude posted a 31-month high of
$114.83 (May 2) only to fall to $94.63 (May 6). This month, oil has
traded in a $97.74 (June 7) to $103.31 (June 1) range.


Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jun 10, 2011 2:42
Added OIL to the latest Premium Piece, using CRB, Daily & Weekly Crude

PREMIUM ACCESShttp://tinyurl.com/6x2f4md

If you are not a Premium subscriber, click here to purchase
http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/


Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jun 9, 2011 20:19
We lowered the target for US crude from 103.80 to 102.50, alas todays high was at 102.44.

I have periodically spoken about what it means for stocks

Last bullet point in Chap. 6.http://ashraflaidi.com/book/ worked on monthly cycles but also wkly. Gold/Oil Ratio best to use Brent.



Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
11 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 19:29
Some very large HF got hit in May...Its funny how many HF actually are just simple long only funds, charging 2 & 20 due to some very good marketing and pretty IR girls
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
11 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 19:13
Thx Juno1 hope your short is ok. reckon if we get below 100.30 then shorts are well in
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
11 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 18:58
Cat - Check out the Brent WTIC spread hitting 18 this morning. it tightened by about 40 pips today. reckon more on its way
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 18:47
While OPEC defunct the percentage of Russia as supplier of ( however poor quality Urals crude) crude goes up. I think that Europe is eager to get out of death knell contracts with Russia, at first out of the grip of Gazprom, which demands rooftop prices ( 3 times higher then henry hub per BTU) . Now Poland develops shale gas and is assumed to hold huge reserves.
Despite higher cost of extrapolation and extraction ( fracking) its still half the price of Gazprom. I think we will pretty soon see a sharp drop in brent because Russia will try to bring crude down to support Gazprom. The ratio of crude to nat gas in terms of BTU will be constant,
and as nat gas is pegged to oil, they must bring crude down to torpedoe Poland's plans by selling nat gas much cheaper for a while until Poland's project funding is emptied.
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
11 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 17:15
Well done Gunjack.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
11 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 17:06
And we print 101.595 as soon as 101.25 gives way....black magick!!!!
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
11 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 17:02
Thank's for that Gunjack. I am of the view that if 104.6 holds then i am bearish down to 90.00.
As you say if Libyan crises is resolved soon then that could be the catalyst for a down move seeing as opec held off from raising production.
Good luck
Juno1