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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2306
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
7 years ago
Oct 26, 2011 13:57
I tend to agree with that Gunjack, China will inevitably become less competitive, the balance of nations is constantly changing. Same thing needs to happen in uk, don't give up on manufacturing, design and R&D, get thinking caps on and get moving. We need to get our banks lending again to legitimate start-ups and small co's.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
7 years ago
Oct 26, 2011 12:03
@Qingyu I mostly agree with your analysis. There is a growing movement in the USA of buying local and many companies (samsung etc) are heavily re-investing into production in the US again. Wage inflation combined with intellectual property theft and transport costs are evening up chinas comparative advantage. Don't be surprised to see the US come roaring back in 2012-13
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
7 years ago
Oct 26, 2011 12:00
Yo Trump tried to read your analysis but it was like reading chinese...Could you simplify? Cheers
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
7 years ago
Oct 24, 2011 17:27
criminals like GS said publicly strong USD.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
7 years ago
Oct 21, 2011 17:56
Equipped with a strength meter one can see Eur strengtht did not change in London trade and does not change in NY but USD strength falls heavily after Dr.Ben made uo his mind.
Short pos in EUR build up this can be seen in price premium to short options.
I think the target 1,29 ( or 1.30) is ok and will be filled. Just wait what will happen when it is clear that EFSF is by far not enough to recapitalize banks.
Wait and see. USDx recovers EURx falls.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
7 years ago
Oct 21, 2011 16:32
So, Ashraf,

Now that Ber'danke has made up his mind with NGDP targeting and inevitably ensuing QE3 disguised as AMBS large scale purchases, do you think it's time to call off 1.29 objective?
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
7 years ago
Oct 21, 2011 16:14
i have discussed "chinese democracy" with my friends a lot. and we agree at least first 10 yrs would not benefit chinese.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
7 years ago
Oct 21, 2011 16:11
aha, i search japanese bubble and got this!

"Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak"

90% drop!

so a soft landing means 40%, and a hard landing is 90%, the mean is 65%. nice!
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
7 years ago
Oct 21, 2011 10:58
When China was empire any official who lied was beheaded on the spot. Today any official who lies is promoted on the spot. China clearly is on the path to democracy.
Seriously China has a big shadow bank problem in terms of property prices.
Lets hope they are not as layback permanent vacation as the EU is.
Some observer of an EU meeting coined a phrase " we can see their thougths happen real-time"
About one per hour.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
7 years ago
Oct 21, 2011 10:46
chinese offical said they will be fine even property price drop 40% yesterday.

and someone said chinese property may drop 50% at least just a few days ago.


i have no idea about it, but 2012-13 would be tough. haw many % japanese drop in 80s?