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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 2, 2012 16:34
Comments: 11
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Gold & Silver Face the Fed

The rally in metals could be in for another spring time decline if the Fed changes its tack owards inflation & growth. But silver remains preferable to gold.
 
Sahid
fjord realm, France
Posts: 464
2 years ago
Nov 11, 2012 15:31
10 dollars the bushel of wheat by end november.
Sahid
fjord realm, France
Posts: 464
2 years ago
Nov 3, 2012 15:00
we had lower lows on silver for three times since sept 2011.
the next support to be broken is 27 dollars.
maximzah22
Gomel`, Belarus
Posts: 4
2 years ago
Aug 14, 2012 11:28
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Sahid
fjord realm, France
Posts: 464
3 years ago
Jun 12, 2012 5:51
is it back to before bretton woods or the collapse of the financil system that some are predicting.
i dont think so. bretton woods came at or just before the first bull cycle in commodities and mainly gold and oil with two shock than we had a depressed commodities cycles running for 20 years and since the beeginning of hte crisis in 2000 commodities outperform oil during some time like in 2008 and since for sure.
Ezone is a step up build up since Robert Schumann under the impulsion of the marshall funds and later on the european russian asset directorate.
Greece and Trascott and the pistachios and the greek stealth navy vessel like many others nations, sounds good.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
3 years ago
Jun 6, 2012 11:56
Problem is Ezone is all politics, not economy. From the great depression 1930 it should be well known austerity only worsens the economical downturn. But Merkel ignored this lesson. Now Ezone has entered recession and merkel has 2 options: succumb to Hollande and pay for growth - starting with bank bailout w/o banks recapitalized no economical growth - but keep Euro alive. The estimated cost 700 bln. Or, option 2, leave Euro . Then the cost is estimated 1 trn. At least. Thus what I wrote more than a year ago, if one wants growth and keep Euro there is no way , politics must first focus on Ezone economy ( no not national economies ) , then Ezone common treasury ( what is now called fiscal union ) , issue Eurobonds, and then leave the Euro to the one Ezone treasury and the ECB. Politics get out of currencies!
The economical effect however is that more than 20.000 politicians are obsolete, and more than 5 million govt officials are obsolete. Thus the reasonable, the simple, the computable will not happen.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
3 years ago
Jun 6, 2012 11:08
no idea on qe3, but read a lot of things about german should pay.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
3 years ago
Jun 6, 2012 7:43
It is not a done deal the FED continues operation twist . Bernanke ( and Obama) tossed the ball
in the Ezone yard some weeks ago.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
3 years ago
Jun 6, 2012 1:03
CHristophe,

This article was correct in predicting the metals' decline but not the move in Gold/Silver ratio.
As for why is gold rising, here is what we told our paid subscribers on Monday.


" Gold's sharp rebound largely reflects the weakness of the US jobs report, which is deemed a powerful confirmation for further asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. Such reflexive moves disregard the possibility that any quantitative easing from the Fed will be sterilized by sales on the shorter-maturity notes, regardless of whether MBS or US treasuries are purchased on the long end.

Thursday's Chicago PMI hit its lowest level since October 2009 at 52.7 in May, from last months 56.2. The index has fallen by 10 points in 2 months, pushing its New Orders sub-index to the lowest since September 2009. Looking at our charts, the common denominator in all graphs, is the lower highs formation, whereby each series attempts to regain its 2010/2011 highs but fails half way. "

For detailed look on the above , subscribers to the Intermarket Insights can have full access in Monday's piece.
http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=643

Non subscribers can click her to join:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/


Ashraf



Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
3 years ago
Jun 6, 2012 0:58
هناك إحتمال قوي سنرى 1250

Ashraf
Christophe
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 1
3 years ago
Jun 5, 2012 13:46
Bonjour Ashraf,

It is with great interest that I read this post today and find it very topical as I am wondering if we are about to live another "Deja-vu" moment with gold & silver (on a crunched timeline hopefully?) and have the same situation that happened from December to March unfold in front of us?

I am sadly noticing that litterally straight after you published this post back in March both silver and gold tanked from a high to a low similar to the one at the end of 2011.

The Gold to silver ratio went from a low 48 back in March to the high 57 at the moment (very similar to the high back in December 2011).

I would love to get your opinion on what has happened in the last few days, where we finally have seen the price of gold going up, breaking above both the 20 & 50eMA, but currently falling short of breaking through the down trendline from Sep 2011 (sorry cannot attach a picture/chart and no silver option in the above chart! for the other readers).

With the global competitive devaluation and potential QE3, it is what some have refered to as a "race to the bottom" that I also believe will ultimately benefit gold and silver, I cannot but notice how silver is currently lagging behind gold... Opportunity? Would love to hear your thoughts (in French or English!)