Posted: May 24, 2012 9:46
Why is positioning in US 10-year treasury notes at its most bullish levels in 27 years despite several FOMC members calling for at least one rate hike this year? The latest positioning figures from the CFTC show longs exceeding shorts by 65,642 contracts, the biggest net long position since May 2013. Such growing bullishness on the 10-year treasury is consistent with the 5-week decline in bond yields, which coincided with plunging oil prices.
Ten-year treasury yields are testing the crucial 6-month trendline after breaking below the 200-week MA. A break below 2.08% this week should invite bond bears to further selling, until the psychological 2.00% is likely to hold.