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Charting Momentum in Latest Forex Cycles
The recurring cycles are underway in the currency market, translating into potentially major developments in the Intermarket space
UK Q1 GDP -0.3% QoQ and Germany +0.5% QoQ. For Germany the IFO "Business Expectations" (currently 100.9, slight expansion) or maybe the Markit Composite PMI (49.8, slight contraction) are both a lot better.
As for indicators you stated in the previous post that ZEW is a worse indicator than PMI (with which I agree), but you did not say that IFO and ZEW are both worse, that's what you claim now.
IFO is in fact a mixture of PMI industrial(now at 45) and services (currently at 52).
The services PMI of 52 gives more insights on local German conditions and they are effectively expanding, see also latest strong construction figures! However since China and the rest of Europe is slowing, the German exporters, strongly reflected in the industrial PMI of 45, are slowing. By the way, given the latest US trade balance, the US exporters seem to be even more slowing!
As consequence, Markit has created the Composite PMI and this indicator better corresponds to IFO. It stands at 49.6. Link: http://www.MarkitEconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=9561
thanks ashraf