Viewing posts by FX-files

User: FX-files (Non-Member)
Last Post: October 9, 2009 ET
Posts: 4 (Anonymous)

Well, it's almost two months later, and the markets here in the U.S. have gone up 7% since you wrote this, Ashraf. Maybe you spoke too soon?

I have to maintain my bearish stance on the yen in the medium term (at least against USD), despite Ashraf's comments otherwise. I don't see yen's ascent to be sustainable, especially after the novelty of the political changes in Japan wears off, following the massive surge in world markets, and given the weak economic data still coming out of the country.

Let me also point out your error of calling for short term weakness in AUDUSD. This pair is on steroids with no sign of letting up. Possible bounce lower seen around 0.8940 which is the 76.4% level from 0.6000 to 0.9850

Ashraf,

What is going on with the yen? This goes against the grain of any conventional wisdom - equity markets are all hopped up on the growth story, and the yen is on a tear against every major currency and has been for a week now! How long can this go on before BOJ decides to intervene? This is truly incredible... really not sure what to make of this.

Thanks for your input, as always.

Ashraf, where do you see the sterling going from here? It looks like the news as of late has been largely positive for U.K., though its strength could also be attributed to fairly highl levels of risk appetite. I think GBP/USD could be eyeing 1.68 this week if the rally goes on undeterred this week. On the other hand, it appears the yen is losing some of its recent strength - any change in forecast on this for the near term?