Viewing posts by raulin

User: raulin
Last Post: June 6, 2010 ET
Posts: 70 (64 by Member, 6 Anonymous)
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Silver breaking down with head and shoulders on dailies gold/silver ratio increasing

Be very careful with USD/JPY Ashraf himself could not see it going below 92.70 and he was not the only one. Sentiment extreme was long USD/JPY but a break of 92.50 is significant nevertheless I think short term it will hold 9200. Breaking 92.00 and the key 91.70 ushers in the down side . Its fate is tied in with equities principally with a strong negative correlation.

That was an unpleasant usd/jpy short squeeze the factor being the sudden rise in short term treasury yield the reason for this being not too clear there was a farly poor bid rate for treasury auction but does not explain the spike VIX spiked up too equity rally stilll goes up but on very low volumes due for a correction

I warned about usd/jpy and also see cad/jpy as predicted dropping like a stone

Hey Asad
Long time no hear ..Looks like Man U maybe facing Inter at some stage Mourinho VS Ferguson but I think Inter are pretty limited and Walter Samuel was crap with Real Madrid though Arsenal VS Barca is a fantastic tie.On a different note ... I can't believe this snake Netanyahu causing so many problems. I was having a chat with my mate about this Iran thing and he could not believe that Israel would do it as the Arab world would be down on them like a ton of bricks but since when has Israel has given a stuff about the Arab world?

Ashraf 2 things Japan on holiday this monday (vernal equinox) so will have less than normal volume, secondly, yen repatriatrion should lead to yen strengthening not weakening as japanese companies earn in dollars etc which they sell to convert back into yen at end of fiscal year. Now it is a different thing to suggest that this effect may not be so strong this year. Jan was a very good month for exports but Feb with Toyota debacle likely was not. Nevertheless, it is very very strange why usd/jpy is trading at these low levels with equities at their highs ..it is another divergence along with poor performance of aud/usd, divergences between DJIA (this being most bullish with more retail investors) , RUT2k and SPX ...and between emerging markets (MCSI) which have not regained Jan highs. These are warning signs to me and those waiting to buy on pullback may find markets pullback further than they thought

Agree about aud/cad looking bearish I shorted at 93.80 and a H4 break of trendline 92.70 opens up at least 9200 and I think 90 for starters but you cannot ignore cad/jpy BIG failure at 90 stochs rolling over on dailies and downside beckons am looking for 86.50

Despite very bullish news for CAD in terms of inflation numbers and retail numbers CAD/JPY unable to break 90 and stochs rolling over on dailies

Montmorency 2 facts GBP not USD dollar was whipping boy last year as well it is not exactly the hardest call in the world to go short cable , the incredible fact is despite record 15 yr plus declines against aussie kiwi and cad and massive depreciation against euro UK is not able to take advantage and sell products abroad . It's a race to the bottom between euro and UK but US economy also a basket case its just they have a reserve currency.

USDX looks like rolling over on dailies strong divergence on MACD suggesting top note important support on trendlins and bearish engulfing candle http://chart.ly/t6sgay