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User: SPECULATOR
Last Post: May 26, 2010 ET
Posts: 807 (22 by Member, 785 Anonymous)
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i still see longer term parity with euro. after june we will certainly get a fall of about 5% then we will reach 100 on dxy for 2011. so for a long term trade, u could consider long dollar but we are almost at the end of the initial upleg.

i think we will hit at least 140 before 150 for cable

yes if tha happens

i believe cable has further to fall to 1.40 at least. there is not much media speculation on sterling at present as all eyes have been on euro. so despite non comercial speculation being high against sterling, media speculation is limited.

the euro is highly media covered at present and perception was incredibally bearish hence the bounce this week. it is too early to establish that a new euro trend has emerged.

the next leg up in the dollar will be immense and coming very soon.

I believe poor US DATA today was having a negative impact on the dollar despite risk aversion. This is insufficient for the birth of a new downtrend of the dollar. it will only attract further shorts en route to dxy 90 and beyond.

the market was not interested in the current inflation story it is interested in what mr king says about the future whether true or not.

as an economist by education, if mervin kings prediction is correct he must be implying weak economic demand in 2011/2012 or else they are telling porkies. I suspect he is predicting the former which is what i believe and also bolsters my weak sterling trend going forward.

go long euro when there is a bloody good reason to same with sterling. right now is not the time.

yes sterling (cable) is currently as supported as a boeing 747 in the air with engines all broken down. 1.35 is very likely to be broken during the summer both technically (i believe) and definitely fundamentally.

the problem here is bakruptcy has passed from corporations to the government coupled with huge unemployment and unsustainable fiscal practices. The only way risk can rally firmly is if investors see solid economic rebound ie falling unemploymet rates and rising GDP. We are not really seeing much of this at present. The advent of higher taxes around the world will only curtail economic recovery. 2010 will proove to be a very difficult year for money managers that use simple approaches. Hedge funds are likely to perform very well!

ps next week i may be working for Barclays wealth investments fingers crossed.