Against which currency, will GBP fall the most this year?

Since the start of 2016 until October 7, GBP has fallen 37% vs JPY, 26% vs NZD, 25% vs AUD, 24% vs CAD, 22% vs EUR, 21% vs CHF and 18% vs USD. This means: so far this year, JPY is the strongest and USD is the weakest (after the GBP). So, by year-end, against which currency do you expect GBP to have lost the most? Will it continue to be JPY, or it will it be USD, EUR, AUD, CAD, NZD or CHF?

Oct 9, 2016 17:10

Against which currency, will GBP fall the most this year?

JPY
 
 37%
NZD
 
 3%
AUD
 
 7%
CAD
 
 7%
EUR
 
 13%
CHF
 
 6%
USD
 
 27%
Voting for this poll is now closed
Comments (Showing latest 10 of 10) View All Comments
evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
3 days ago
Apr 19, 2019 21:28

Ultimate Oscillator

Interpretation
Buying Pressure and its relationship to the True Range forms the base for the Ultimate Oscillator. Williams believes that the best way to measure Buying Pressure is simply subtracting the Close from the Low or the Prior Close, whichever of the two is the lowest. This will reflect the true magnitude of the advance, and hence, buying pressure. The Ultimate Oscillator rises when Buying Pressure is strong and falls when Buying Pressure is weak.
The Ultimate Oscillator measures momentum for three distinct timeframes. Notice that the second timeframe is double that of the first, and the third timeframe is double that of the second. Even though the shortest timeframe carries the most weight, the longest timeframe is not ignored, which should reduce the number of false divergences. This is important because the basic buy signal is based on a bullish divergence and the basic sell signal is based on a bearish divergence.

Buy Signal
There are three steps to a buy signal. First, a bullish divergence forms between the indicator and security price. This means the Ultimate Oscillator forms a higher low as price forges a lower low. The higher low in the oscillator shows less downside momentum. Second, the low of the bullish divergence should be below 30. This is to ensure that prices are somewhat oversold or at a relative extremity. Third, the oscillator rises above the high of the bullish divergence.

Sell Signal
There are three steps to a sell signal. First, a bearish divergence forms between the indicator and security price. This means the Ultimate Oscillator forms a lower high as price forges a higher high. The lower high in the oscillator shows less upside momentum. Second, the high of the bearish divergence should be above 70. This is to ensure that prices are somewhat overbought or at a relative extremity. Third, the oscillator falls below the low of the bearish divergence to confirm a reversal.

Conclusion
The Ultimate Oscillator is a momentum oscillator that incorporates three different timeframes. Traditional signals are derived from bullish and bearish divergence, but chartists can also look at actual levels for a trading bias. This usually works better with longer parameters and longer trends. For example, the Ultimate Oscillator (20,40,80) and price trend favors the bulls when above 50 and the bears when below 50. As with all indicators, the Ultimate Oscillator should not be used alone. Complementary indicators, chart patterns and other analysis tools should be employed to confirm signals.
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evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
6 days ago
Apr 16, 2019 23:26
Vortex Indicator

Developed by Etienne Botes and Douglas Siepman, the Vortex Indicator consists of two oscillators that capture positive and negative trend movement. In creating this indicator, Botes and Seipman drew on the work of Welles Wilder and Viktor Schauberger, who is considered the father of implosion technology. Despite a rather involved formula, the indicator is quite easy to interpret. A bullish signal triggers when the positive trend indicator crosses above the negative trend indicator or a key level. A bearish signal triggers when the negative trend indicator crosses above the positive trend indicator or a key level. The Vortex Indicator is either above or below these levels, which means it always has a clear bullish or bearish bias.
Interpretation
The Vortex Indicator (VTX) can be used to identify the start of a trend and subsequently affirm trend direction. First, a simple cross of the two oscillators can be used to signal the start of a trend. After this crossover, the trend is up when +VI is above -VI and down when -VI is greater than +VI. Second, a cross above or below a particular level can signal the start of a trend and these levels can be used to affirm trend direction.

Conclusion
The Vortex Indicator is a unique directional indicator that provides clear signals and defines the overall trend. As with all technical analysis tools and indicators, the Vortex Indicator can be used on a range of securities and across various timeframes. For example, VTX can be applied to weekly and monthly charts to define the bigger trend and then applied to daily charts to generate signals within that trend. Using the daily chart, chartists could focus exclusively on bullish signals when VTX on the weekly chart indicates an uptrend. Conversely, chartists can focus on bearish signals when VTX on the daily chart is in bear mode.
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Vortex Indicator

evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
7 days ago
Apr 15, 2019 18:22

Introduction of Williams %R
Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R is a momentum indicator that is the inverse of the Fast Stochastic Oscillator. Also referred to as %R, Williams %R reflects the level of the close relative to the highest high for the look-back period. In contrast, the Stochastic Oscillator reflects the level of the close relative to the lowest low. %R corrects for the inversion by multiplying the raw value by -100. As a result, the Fast Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R produce the exact same lines, but with different scaling. Williams %R oscillates from 0 to -100; readings from 0 to -20 are considered overbought, while readings from -80 to -100 are considered oversold. Unsurprisingly, signals derived from the Stochastic Oscillator are also applicable to Williams %R.

Conclusion
Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that measures the level of the close relative to the high-low range over a given period of time. In addition to the signals mentioned above, chartists can use %R to gauge the six-month trend for a security. 125-day %R covers around 6 months. Prices are above their 6-month average when %R is above -50, which is consistent with an uptrend. Readings below -50 are consistent with a downtrend. In this regard, %R can be used to help define the bigger trend (six months). Like all technical indicators, it is important to use the Williams %R in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Volume, chart patterns and breakouts can be used to confirm or refute signals produced by Williams %R.
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Introduction of Williams %R

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12 days ago
Apr 11, 2019 14:18
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evapattern
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15 days ago
Apr 7, 2019 22:43
Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Introduction
Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. According to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. Signals can also be generated by looking for divergences, failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend.

RSI is an extremely popular momentum indicator that has been featured in a number of articles, interviews and books over the years. In particular, Constance Brown's book, Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, features the concept of bull market and bear market ranges for RSI. Andrew Cardwell, Brown's RSI mentor, introduced positive and negative reversals for RSI and, additionally, turned the notion of divergence, literally and figuratively, on its head.

Wilder features RSI in his 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. This book also includes the Parabolic SAR, Average True Range and the Directional Movement Concept (ADX). Despite being developed before the computer age, Wilder's indicators have stood the test of time and remain extremely popular.
Conclusion
RSI is a versatile momentum oscillator that has stood the test of time. Despite changes in volatility and the markets over the years, RSI remains as relevant now as it was in Wilder's days. While Wilder's original interpretations are useful to understanding the indicator, the work of Brown and Cardwell takes RSI interpretation to a new level. Adjusting to this level takes some rethinking on the part of the traditionally schooled chartists. Wilder considers overbought conditions ripe for a reversal, but overbought can also be a sign of strength. Bearish divergences still produce some good sell signals, but chartists must be careful in strong trends when bearish divergences are actually normal. Even though the concept of positive and negative reversals may seem to undermine Wilder's interpretation, the logic makes sense and Wilder would hardly dismiss the value of putting more emphasis on price action. Positive and negative reversals put price action of the underlying security first and the indicator second, which is the way it should be. Bearish and bullish divergences place the indicator first and price action second. By putting more emphasis on price action, the concept of positive and negative reversals challenges our thinking towards momentum oscillators.
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Uptrend and forex trading signals
The chart below shows Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) starting an uptrend as the Keltner Channels turn up and the stock surges above the upper channel line. ADM was in a clear downtrend in April-May as prices continued to pierce the lower channel. With a strong thrust up in June, prices exceeded the upper channel and the channel turned up to start a new uptrend. Notice that prices held above the lower channel on dips in early and late July.

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The second chart shows Nvidia (NVDA) starting a downtrend with a sharp decline below the lower channel line. After this initial break, the stock met resistance near the 20-day EMA (middle line) from mid-May until early August. The inability to even come close to the upper channel line showed strong downside pressure.

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Once a trading range or flat trading environment has been identified, traders can use the Keltner Channels free forex signals to identify overbought and oversold levels. A trading range can be identified with a flat moving average and the Average Directional Index (ADX). The chart below shows IBM fluctuating between support in the 120-122 area and resistance in the 130-132 area from February to late September. The 20-day EMA, middle line, lagged price action, but flattened out from April to September.
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Mar 29, 2019 20:02
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evapattern
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34 days ago
Mar 19, 2019 23:21
What Is Support?

Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excesses of supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.

What Is Support?
Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Support and Resistance example chart from StockCharts.com

Support does not always hold, however, and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.

Where Is Support Established?
Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support. As technical analysis is not an exact science, setting precise support levels can often be difficult. In addition, price movements can be volatile and briefly dip below support. For example, it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes an eighth below the established support level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.
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