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I am going to step out on a limb in this report and cover what I think to be an intermediate top in the precious metals sector. Everyone I speak with and from the hundreds of emails I get I would say the vast majority are bullish on gold and silver. That being said, I feel we are 3-8 days away...

Ive been busy counting the months of correction since Mid-April this year when I forecasted a top in the U.S. Markets following a massive 13 month rally off the March 2009 lows. The theory I had at the time was that the % of bulls in sentiment surveys was running at nearly 3 to 1 over Bears. 57%...

The inevitability of further asset purchases from the Fed, BoE, ECB and BoJ enhance the case for gold and silver. ...

STERLING BROADENS WEAKNESS on fresh data disappointment, this time from the slowest monthly rise in Nationwide house price index since Nov 2009 and slower than expected Aug construction PMI (6-month low). GBPUSD drifts around its 200-day MA $1.5427, while attempting to hold above the $1.5390s38%...

After managing to sustain its highest levels for a year for a couple of weeks now the pound has slid back today against a basket of currencies on the back of risk aversion and capital flows into the US dollar, yen and Swiss franc as fears about the US and global economy continue to weigh on...

The JPY Trade-Weighted Index shatters its 2009 high of 135 (as measured by the Deutsche Bank Index), hitting a high of 139.14. Here is the chart I posted 2 weeks ago http://bit.ly/aivsPK warning of a breakout against what many have called a doubletop. ......

DATA DOUBLE PUNCH HITS MARKETS as US jobless claims jump by 500K (highest since Nov), Aug Philly Fed -7.7 (lowest since Jul 2009) put life back in the yen as risk aversion intensifies (S&P500 -1.6% testing 1075). USDJPY testing 84.80, AUDJPY eyes 75.50, EURCHF loses 200 pips now testing 1.3180...

YENs TRADE-WEIGHTED INDEX http://chart.ly/4dt85t the chart in the link is Deutsche Banks JPY Traded-Weighted Index, showing the currency testing the highs of January 2009. Despite the similarity of the price pattern with Jan 2009, there are differences. GLOBAL BOND YIELDS TODAY are dragged by a...

#081710.gif_640W.gif# The USD/JPY is showing tentative signs of exhausting a long-term downtrend. Last week's low found support exactly at the 2009 reaction low to hint of the completion of a large five-wave structure that originates from the 2007 high. The last leg down also resembles a...

THE BULLISH HAMMER CANDLE I referred to in yesterdays IMT 3 hrs before the NY close may be materializing in both the S&P500 and the Dow-30. Such a pattern is usually bullish, which means we can see brief run-up into the next 2-3 days, with the 1095 and 10400 objectives in S&P500 and Dow-30...

Despite todays inflation data for July showing CPI falling to its lowest level since November 2009, Bank of England governor Mervyn King will still be obliged to write his now somewhat customary letter to the Chancellor to explain the price overshoot. Even retail prices which has been the...

GOLD SEASONALS of the last 8 years indicate Q4 is the best quarter, showing % gains in 7 out of the last 8 years , followed by Q3 and Q1 rising in 6 of the last 8 years. The current gold rally COULD BE ESPECIALLY POWERFUL as it combines the onset of further treasuries purchases by the Fed and...

GBP & JPY are at opposite ends as sterling is the biggest loser in todays FX market flows following an unexpected decline in UK July RICS (House Price balance) to -8 from +9, the 1st negative index since July (and lowest since April 2009). JPY gains on slower than expected Chinese exports growth...

S&P500s 4th CONSECUTIVE DAILY ATTEMPT to close above the 100-week MA of 1127 may not succeed today, but be ware of misleading signals. THIS http://chart.ly/bkx6z5 shows the close above 1121 (50% fib from 2007 high to 2009 low) remains a positive dynamic for the index. But the real question is...

STOCKS EXTEND FRESH DOSAGE of pre-payrolls buying after US July ISM unexpectedly rises to 54.3 from 53.8; S&P500 will attempt to close above its 10-day MA of 1126 (not broken since May). AUSSIE & LOONIE SOAR against all currencies as wheat extends its 55% rally of the past 4 weeks amid worsening...

AUSSIE & LOONIE SOAR against all currencies as wheat extends its 55% rally of the past 4 weeks amid worsening draught in Russia. Aussies leadership is also boosted by the prolonged strength in energy and metals as the Federal Reserve opens the door for the possibility of renewed asset purchases...

Pay attention to the EU-USD Spread of Libor rather than isolating EUR & USD libor. ...

Entering 2010, the S&P 500 Index was in the process of completing impulsive strength off the March 2009 low. Since underperforming the 200-day MA by a record 36%, price-action has since oscillated between 13% above the 200-day MA to 10% below it. While, key medium-term turning points have each...

NEGATIVE USD COMBO: The combination of weak US figures, dovish Fed rhetoric and improving Euorozone figures (PMIs) is proving increasingly detrimental for the US dollar. USDX is at risk of breaking below the 81.40s, marking the 50% retracement of the rally from the Nov 2009 low to the June 2010...

SWISS FRANC SOARS on reports that the Swiss National Bank is dumping EURCHF, bailing out of its money-losing interventions, in which it bought EURCHF over past 18 months. The SNB tried defending EURCHF by buying in Q1 2009 at 1.50, followed by more purchases at 1.45, then at 1.43, 1.40 and even...

GBPAUD reflects contrasting expectations . . . for the RBA and BoE, with the former expected to keep rates on hold due to softer than expected inflation and the latter seeing better reasons to listen...

The market continues to become quicker and fiercer as it move up and down 2+% on a regular basis This week we have seen some wild price swings due to earnings, events and the Feds which just makes trading that much more intense. I have pointed out yesterday that this market only gives you a...

USD STRESSED OUT BY BERNANKE? Since markets are widely expecting Bernankes testimony to highlight the Feds downgrade for US growth and inflation, most FX players see it as an opportunity to sell USD into the end of the US session. Yet, it is relatively common for markets to bid up currencies 2-3...

CAD DROPS ACROSS THE BOARD on combination of a dovish rate hike from the Bank of Canadas and broadening risk aversion. The BoC did raise rates to 0.75% as was expected but cut its 2010 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.7%, while indicating Canadian housing activity declining markedly. USDCAD...

It was an interesting options expiration week for equities thats for sure. We saw some very choppy price action with large waves of buying and selling as the bulls and bears fought for control. Both Gold and Oil closed lower for the week which is not a good sign considering the US Dollar...

Yen strength is here to stay especially as the US dollar's safe-haven lustre is eroded by the worsening US data. ...

Since equity markets recovered from the most oversold condition since the March 2009 low, the VIX has relapsed it's way down to 200-day MA support. The latest rebound in the Volatility Index suggests that equity markets may continue to trade rangebound. Moreover, the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial...

US JUNE RETAIL SALES -0.5% (vs exp -0.2% and prev -1.1%), ex autos -0.1% from prev -1.2%. Better but not good enough is one way to sum up these figures. Youd have to remove autos, gas and building material to obtain a positive retail sales figure. The 1.3% DECLINE IN JUNE IMPORT PRICES was the...

The single currency has managed to make a significant recovery off its recent lows around the 1.1880 level set at the beginning of June. The failure to sustain a move below 1.2145, the 50% Fibonacci support level of the up move from the 0.8270 to 1.6020 has managed to stabilise the single...

UK UNEMPLOYMENT fell by 20.8K in June after a 31K decline in May with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.5%--lowest since March 2009. The robust figures may not dispel doubts over the impact of upcoming decline in falling public sector jobs. The weaker than expected 2.7% increase in average...