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ANOTHER REASON WHY JAPAN WONT INTERVENE. In addition to the several reasons why Japan is unlikely to engage in yen-selling intervention (I mentioned those in countless interviews and IMTs found on this website) is that the currency is NO LONGER MOVING RAPIDLY. Yes, the yen is strong, standing at...

EURCHF HITS FRESH RECORD LOWS at 1.2936 less than a day after SNB president said the cenbank is ready to intervene again. There are a few obstacles to any durable bounce in EURCHF; i) the Swiss franc is strong to the extent of dragging the rising USD down to 8-month lows at 1.0230. Chartists must...

The BOJ OPTED FOR easing than actual FX intervention, via expanding its 6-month fixed rate lending facility to 30 trln yen from 20 trln yen. The yen rose as a result of the confirmed absence of intervention. See previous IMT explaining why I continue to see no yen-selling intervention. Yen gained...

DON'T CONFUSE INTERVENTION WITH QE in the case of Japan. Japan's Fin Min Noda made it clear last week that any yen intervention would make little difference and that chances of US stepping in were "zero". So Japan is now moving in the way of further QE as was seen in December when the BoJ's fresh...

More disappointing US housing figures are unlikely to further boost USD on risk aversion because (i) prolonged US data deterioration bolsters the case for a fresh asset pruchases from the Fed; and (ii) of the latest upside surprise in German August IFO survey. While the latest 3-year high in...

Ashraf on CNBC-Squawk (US) discussing yen strength, its reasons and why currency intervention remains unlikely. http://bit.ly/cqUi7b ......

CANADA JUL CPI is the only data item of the day, further inflation softening could add to CAD selling especially in the event of prolonged declines in appetite. Watch the annual core CPI (exp at 1.8% from 1.7%). USDCAD 3-hr shows immediate TL resistance at 1.0420, a break of which seen extending...

DATA DOUBLE PUNCH HITS MARKETS as US jobless claims jump by 500K (highest since Nov), Aug Philly Fed -7.7 (lowest since Jul 2009) put life back in the yen as risk aversion intensifies (S&P500 -1.6% testing 1075). USDJPY testing 84.80, AUDJPY eyes 75.50, EURCHF loses 200 pips now testing 1.3180...

YENs TRADE-WEIGHTED INDEX http://chart.ly/4dt85t the chart in the link is Deutsche Banks JPY Traded-Weighted Index, showing the currency testing the highs of January 2009. Despite the similarity of the price pattern with Jan 2009, there are differences. GLOBAL BOND YIELDS TODAY are dragged by a...

US JUL INDUS PRODUCTION +1.0%, twice more than expected, with capacity utilization rising at its strongest pace since Sep 2008 at 74.8. YEN CROSSES seen making the best of the day as Japanese intervention is in focus. NZDJPY eyes 61.20, CADJPY seen at 83.20. AUD builds on gains after a neutral...

JPY CHF USD BALANCE OF POWER is being dominated by the Swiss franc as Japans Q2 GDP slows to 0.1% from 1.1%. Despite the news, JPY is second best performer of the day as Asian/European bourses remain in negative territory, while S&P500 watchers await whether the index further drops below its...

TOO SLOW FOR YOU? Many have complained about receiving the Intraday Market Thoughts emails relatively late. The increasing size of my recipient list has slowed down the process and many get stuck in the queue for quite a while. We've changed the software last year and consider doing so again....

YEN EXTENDS PULLBACK as markets stabilize, while CHF takes over from the Japanese currency, reminding us the Swiss safehaven is here to stay. The latest comments from Japanese officials about excessive yen moves have not been sufficiently potent as markets widely believed intervention will not be...

YEN STRENGTH EXTENDED overnight after Japanese govt officials said a rising yen should be dealt with monetary policy rather than intervention. The 158-pt decline of the Nikkei-225 is largely the result of currency strength. As European equities and US futures dip into negative territory; EURJPY,...

SWISS FRANC SOARS on reports that the Swiss National Bank is dumping EURCHF, bailing out of its money-losing interventions, in which it bought EURCHF over past 18 months. The SNB tried defending EURCHF by buying in Q1 2009 at 1.50, followed by more purchases at 1.45, then at 1.43, 1.40 and even...

SWISS FRANC vs. GOLD IS HIGHEST PERFORMING currency against gold since June, +9%, followed by JPY and EUR, which are +5.5% and 3.7% against the yellow metal. CHF was the best performing currency in June after the Swiss National Bank is widely perceived to back off its sporadic interventions, as...

Since the October 2008 lows of $682.50 the yellow metal has recovered its lustre initially moving up in conjunction with equity markets, as well as on the back of a weaker US dollar. This move higher also coincided with the move higher in the single European currency as markets stabilised on the...

CHF = BEST PERFORMER OF THE MONTH out of a universe of top traded 35 currencies (emerging markets & G10) after the Swiss National Bank is widely perceived to back off its sporadic interventions, as these have shifted from being an act of stabilization to catching a falling EURCHF knife. The francs...

Watch the risk of contacgion into Eurozone core nations, as well as the USD Index monthly rise and the broadening gains in the Swiss franc. ...

RECURRING INTERVENTION TALK ABOUT SNB as EURCHF jumps 70 pips from $1.3746 low, prompting EUR crosses higher across the board, including EURUSD at 1.1980s. EURCHF seen capped at 1.3910. Japanese Finance Ministry officials also jawboning as they issue the standard warning against excessive...

EURCHF draws near to 1.41, retracing more than 75% of the May 19 SNB intervention. Traders are aware of the 1.40 support (point of intervention), which suggests they will retest 1.4050s before drawing closer to 1.40. EURNOK breaks below May 17 trend line support after failing to hold 7.95...

THOSE SPANISH BANKS AGAIN. Reports that Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Spains 2nd biggest bank remains unable to renew $1bn of short-term funding in the US market so far this month. In other parts, The ongoing increase in LIBOR rates (now at 0.53% from 0.25% 3 months ago) partly reflects...

GOLD THE NEW ANTI EURO: Gold price action is increasingly tied to the euros broad performance and less so to the USD. Since March, the yellow metal has proven to be among the few safehavens away from the Eurozone sovereign woes to the extent that the correlation between GOLD/USD and EURUSD has...

Ashraf's interview on CNBC discussing 1) Eurozone & Intervention http://bit.ly/ap9rGV 2) USD & Equities http://bit.ly/c0Sqzt and 3) Gold/ EUR, Aussie & EM FX http://bit.ly/cn6M4y ......

STRONGER THAN EXPECTED 7.6% increase in April US existing home sales was no surprise considering the solid rise in pending homes sales for Mar and Apr. The figures highlight the divergence between stabilising US macro fundamentals and deteriorating market sentiment. But nothing has changed from...

DAMAGED GOODS is the state of the commodity currencies as their selloff intensifies primarily against JPY, USD and to lesser extent the euro. What started as a shapr selloff in AUD is now broadening into CAD and NZD. We continue to target 0.8140 and 0.80 as prelim AUDUSD targets, followed by 0.78...

USD 3-MONTH LIBOR REACHES 0.48%, doubling the levels from the November lows, as it reflects the escalating cost of USD-funding for US and non-US banks. Lack of trust among banks as well as liquidity difficulties are the main culprit. Fed has responded by providing USD-funding through FX swaps with...

ECB Intervention is inevitable, Gold set to catch down with other commodities & Aussie to way down under...

FEAR OF ECB INTERVENTION PULLING FX traders away from selling EUR and GBP, and forcing them to knock down commodity currencies (AUD, CAD & NZD). The massive 200-pip jump in EURCHF in less than 10 minutes (13:00-13:10 BST) followed by an additional 100-pip move is the work of no other than the...

SNB Policy Board Member Jean-Pierrre Danthine to make his first major policy speech as the newly-appointed member of the SNB board today (no time specified). Part of the reason to the SNB silence in the face of the collapsing EURCHF to 1 year lows is been the intensity of the selloff in EUR,...