Search

Watch the risk of contacgion into Eurozone core nations, as well as the USD Index monthly rise and the broadening gains in the Swiss franc. ...

NZD IS DAYs HIGHEST PERFOMER after the RBNZs 25-bp rate hike, which lifted NZDJPY and NZDUSD to 62.20 and 0.6816 respectively. AUD, NOK and CHF follow behind as strong performers. IT WAS RARE to see Asian stocks rally despite late session turnaround in US indices. Robust jobs figures in Australia...

RBNZ RATE HIKE? Markets price a 81% chance of a 25-bt rate hike by the RBNZ to 2.75% (21:00 GMT today) A spike in inflation expectations to an annual 2.9% in Q2 from 2.1% and unemployment dropped to 6.0% from above 7.1%, could prompt a rate hike alongside a hawkish policy statement. NZDUSD eyes...

NZD weakness extends in European trading after the RBNZ decision to hold rates unchanged was accompanied by a dovish statement (no rate hike until before summer). NZDUSD hovers around 0.70, capped at 0.7050, with prelim downside target at 0.6930. NZDJPY consolidates at 63.30s territory, but 64.70...

ALTHOUGH BERNANKE reiterated his persistence in communicating the low inflation, low interest rate message, which is clearly USD-negative, FX traders can detect a consolidating foundation for the USD. The USD Index HAS YET TO CLOSE ABOVE THE 55-DAY MA OF 75.79, which would be the first close...

It may be unwise to think against the Aussie after the RBA . . . raised rates for the 3rd time this year, signalling more tightening next year, BUT we cannot help notice the AUDUSD daily and 4-hr...

RBNZ due in 30 mins (20:00 GMT) could escalate the selling in the high yielding currencies in the event that it leaves short term rates steady at 2.50%. While we could see more losses in NZD, AUD and NOK against USD, but there is more downside against JPY. NZDJPY and NZDUSD eye 65.30 and 0.7150,...

FX TRADERS SWIFLTLY CONCLUDE THAT NO EXIT STRATEGY IS POSSIBLE after hearing BERNANKE speak. Bernanke said that adopting a FISCAL strategy (responsibility of the US Treasury NOT the Fed) " is critically important in order to maintaining confidence in our economy and confidence in our currency". ...

Stocks extend losses after touching 10K just like FTSE-100 extended losses few weeks ago when it hit 5K. Whether it is the break of the 76 level for the first time in 365 days or NZDUSD failure to breach the 76% retracement at 0.7450, traders must watch these failed parameters of risk appetite....

EURO DRAGGED BY JAWBONING FROM TRICHET & NOVOTNY reiterating the importance of a STRONG DOLLAR. EURUSD drops below 1.46 despite stock's rally. Aussie attempting to catch up with Kiwi after the latter was damaged in Asian trade following its violent run against USD and GBP. The 1.5% rally in US...

Here's Friday's GBPUSD weekly gravestone doji which helped us predict the $1.65 target from the then $1.6770 high. A great textbook case for beginners and experts http://twitpic.com/d1r81 And here's the current ste up for OIL and NZDUSD http://twitpic.com/dijtk......

Kiwi soaring after stronger auction for NZ milk powder maker fonterra auction. Fonterras Global Dairy Trade arm was due to test global markets for whole milkpowder at its scheduled August internet auction. NZDUSD eyes the 0.6785. NZDJPY broke the key triple top of 63.60 to hit 10-mnonth high at...

It is days like these that further reiterate our long term bullishness for EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. We stick with our $1.57 and $1,100 year-end forecast for EURUSD and. The pullbacks in EUR, AUD and NZD during risk aversion plays have been increasingly short-lived as well as quickly retracable....

US Q2 GDP and Canada May GDP both due at 12:30 GMT. US GDP seen at -1.5% from -5.5% and Can GDP seen -0.3% from Aprils -0.2%. JPY weakness extending across the board after last nights release of the biggest decline in annual core CPI in history (-1.7%). Dow futures +41 pts, FTSE +5 pts (FTSE...

MONTHLY VIX chart highlights a textbook bullish reversal signal as indicated by the doji star and further supported by the January 2007 trend line http://twitpic.com/c0t3b USDJPY still failing to break above 95.15 resistance, while EURUSD hit our 1.4060 target (from 1.4140), NZDUSD at 0.6520 and...

The following Nikkei-225 chart http://twitpic.com/bylb2 suggests further risk aversion coming up in Asia. With Nikkei likely to retest 9,900 and even 9,866, which will likely prompt a USDJPY rest of 94.00, NZDUSD at 0.6510 and GBPJPY at 154.00 (medium-term target at 152.30) ...

USD strength joins JPY rebound as the oil pullback below 66.80 joins the equity sell-off. GBPJPY hits 155.20 target, while NZDUSD and USDJPYhave yet to near their 0.6550 and 94.10 goals. Gold, as expected, failed to hold above the 957 before extending loses towards 938. AUDCAD peaked out at...

Dollar weakness getting too excessive, while the rising S&P500 / Gold ratio is nearing its peak....

If equities hardly managed a rebound yesterday despite a sharp increase in US new home sales, then what would happen in case of renewed decline in S&P/Case Shiller home price index (13:00 GMt) and US July consumer confidence (10:00 GMT)? Yen was already leading the pack earlier this monring before...

If equities hardly managed a rebound yesterday despite a sharp increase in US new home sales, then what would happen in case of renewed decline in S&P/Case Shiller home price index (13:00 GMt) and US July consumer confidence (10:00 GMT)? Recall the June 30th release of the June consumer confidence...

Equities shrugging of the stronger than expected 115 surge in US June home sales highlights the insistence for markets to pare Fridays gains, setting up the opportunity for renewed slide in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and GBPJPY to 0.8145, 0.6505, 1.6410 and 155.80. Gold seen capped at 957--38%...

Will EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD end NY trading at fresh session lows, or at least near the lows of Thursdays sessionas has been the case over the last few days? Stocks are off their session lows as NY goes to lunch. Thus any protracted selling in equities could accelerate the retreat in...

Forex markets have yet to buy into the rally in US equities. ...

S&P Hotchart updated. As AUDNZD gradually retreats back towards the 1.24, look into exploiting strengthening NZD by applying fresh shorts in NZDUSD as stocks struggle to regain pre-Goldman Sachs earnings gains. Intels Q2 earnings after the bell (exp 8 cts/share) may impact the market, but any...

US equities attempt to stabilize risk appetite after the Asian equity selloff sent JPY to 6-week highs as oil and bond yield tumbled to 9-week lows. With Chinas president leaving the G8 meeting earlier than expected and Forex determined to not be a topic of this weeks meeting, traders may expect...

Further downside room for NZDUSD remains . . . despite 200-pt loss over past 3 days. Latest weakness in NZD data and the RBNZs reluctance to intervene, combined with deteriorating internals for US...

Dollar shakes-off previous selling and regains ground as equities pare gains, with oil breaking below $71. USDCAD lifts off 1.1510s onto 1.1578, looking to test prelim 1.1590, followed by key trend line resistance at 1.1635-40. Cable extended sell-off from 1.16744 to 1.6515 and looks like our...

Sterling shows the biggest deterioration in FX over the past 16 hours as cable breaks below 1.6280 trend line, eyeing next support at 1.6250s. Look for 1.6180. Dow futures + 6pts but FTSE and DAX 28 and -64 respectively. USDCAD hits 1.1620 target as oil breaks to 68.30s. Next level at 1.1650...

Falling equities boost the USD and JPY, as FTSE, DAX and Dow futures deepen in the red. USDCAD broke above 1.15, targetting 1.15while GBPUSD tests $1.64 eyeing 1.6360. Selling in Russian and Indian stocks sheds further doubt on the emerging market rally, which should increase risk aversion to the...

Intraday moves increasingly turning to the price of US crude as a dirty gauge of appetite momentum, with the $70 figure in focus. Over the last 5 trading days, Dow and oil futures moved opposite to one another, with oil pullbacks benefiting JPY and USD vs oher currencies. AUDUSD downside mey...