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WHAT CAN THE ECB DO TODAY? Euro hit the 5-year trend line support of $1.2730-50 as dealers pressure the ECB into action ahead of todays interest rate announcement (11:45 GMT) and important press conference (12:30 GMT). Following Mondays decision to abolish the minimum credit rating requirements...

USDNOK GRAVESTONE DOJI CHART http://chart.ly/b689y2 & NORGES BANK DECISION: NORGES RAISED rates by 25-bps to 2.00% today in a decision that was not a surprise. While EURNOK is the more popular currency pair, especially now that Norwegian rates are a full percentage point higher than in the...

Risk aversion trades accelerate on disappointing ISM and bigger than expected build in oil inventories as these intensify selling in CAD. Not only July ISM fell to 46.4 but also the employment index slipped to 41.5 from 43.4. The unexpectedly large builds of US Crude oil inventories by 1.67 mln vs...

The dollar's much anticipated stabilization is bound to be choppy at best...

Oil is up by over $15 in May, its biggest monthly gain in more than a decade attaining a 6-month high of $66.40. The 38% retracement of the slide from the record high of $147 to the $29.40 low stands at $74.40. The gold/oil ratio reached 14.5, dropping below its 200-day MA of 15.50. Next support...

AUDNOK's 4-week bull run lost nearly a 1/3 of its 14% gains last week, signaling the beginning of a possible turnaround, which could be prompted by protracted unwinding of risk appetite. With Aussie interest rates at 3.00% compared to 2.00% in Norway, AUD is set for further losses in the event of...

Aussie and Nokkie putting previous losses behind as European bourses break the deadlock of losing global equities, setting up the ground for prolonged upside in AUDJPY and USDNOK towards 68.70s and 6.67. Relative data vacuum. A close above 810 in the S&P500 should set up broad-based losses in USD...

NOK loses across the board after the Norwegian central bank cuts by 50 bps to 2.00% as was widely expected but the decision is especially NOK bearish as the central banks outlook for interest rates is further downgraded to 1.00% in autumn, as well as downgrading its 2009 core CPI outlook to 2.5%...

Latest TICS data from the US Treasury showing total net inflows into US instruments showed a -$148.9 billion in January, the biggest outflow on record. This was largely prompted by selling of US Treasuries by private investors, and to a lesser extent sovereign accounts. The drop in holdings of US...

USDNOK is down 8% from its 7.28 high of March 3. Readers of the Hot-Charts from Feb 11th and Feb 26th were warned of emerging bearishness in the pair (bullishness in NOK) on a combination of...

Although USDNOK broke above the interim resistance of 7.2 last week, the weekly chart addressed in the Hot-Chart of Feb 11 remains unable to break above the 7.32 resistance, prevailing since Oct 2008. This may raise a discussion as to why would USDCAD break above its own 1.30 resistance prevailing...

Todaty's Hot-Chart on EURGBP is already up 60 pips since publication (password required for access). USDNOK breaks further to the upside, now targetting the 7.20s, which is the top of the weekly consolidation prevailing since October. Shorts are increasingly squeezed at the 7.2600-7.3000. Yen...

EURUSD shrugs news of the latest 24.5 billion loan to East/Cent European banks and down on mounting risk aversion. Next source of major event risk likely to take the form of an actual credit downgrade of a major Eurozone bank or the failure of an East/Cent European bank. Sub $1.2650 break likely...

In revisiting the NOK trade, we see a confirmation . . . of the persistent consolidation in the USDNOK pair, albeit, at a narrowing range with a 7.00 trend line resistance and 6.75 support. The last...

NOK again proves its mettle, standing as the top performing currency amid G10 FX since Wed NY close and the beginning of the month. I reiterate my bearish stance in USDNOK (as seen in last week's Hot-Chart). The 7.20-6.63 consolidation is increasingly appearing as a bearish flag, with intermediate...

GBP supported by Higher than expected CPI, damaging EUR down to 0.8844 and may extend losses towards 0.8770s, but tomorrow's release of BoE minutes may stabilize EURGBP. CAD is the worst perfomer of G10 FX on combination of risk aversion and dismal CAD data (see yesterday's Hot-Chart). Euro...

NOK remains boosted across the board faring best performing . . . currency since NY Tues close and second best performer over past 5 days after NZD. With my pro-NOK calls vs GBP already...