Posts by "amit"

Ashraf, i think its safe to say that gold and silver currently are overbought and are more likely to be sold further if market uncertainties are displaced temporarily with gov't statements. The gold however may break 1000 if eastern European problems manifest to cause equity markets to collapse the recent lows.

As always, excellent analysis Ashraf.

There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment in the last HOT-chart post "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "

Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.

It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.

As always, excellent analysis Ashraf.

There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "

Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.

It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.

Hey ashraf, good call


Wonder what the USD/JPY jumps today were?
News related, or over sentiment on yen bullish calls?

Ashraf i dont want to ask this question to you, however, i am uncertain as to "these" withholdings of currency that institutions have on behalf of BoJ that have been dropping. ( i presume the amount is in their balance sheets posted on their site) I have my assumption ...upside down scythe.

Your call for a USD/JPY in mid 70s somewhere along the way is plausable with my dow at 7000, however, i am uncertain as to how the drop in export demand for japan may lower the appreciation of yen. Japan has been protecting their yen from huge appreciation in time of world growth, however, now that deflation is on the horizon would japan risk itself to manipulating yen by increasing public debt (ie through buying corporate bonds like how FED is buying anything that is high-risk no-return paper thereby subsidizing those markets, or allowing more time to revert large positions because FED know how to scare speculators trying to strong elbow the large positions into liquidating.)