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Posts by "qiman"

248 Posts Total by "qiman":
228 Posts by member
Qiman
(United States)
20 Posts by Anonymous "qiman":
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
May 7, 2011 17:49
Thanks for this article, and I agree that the fundamentals for gold remain intact.

Regarding the start of the silver crash, the 3rd silver margin increase was announced Thursday and already known to the market Friday April 29th, and didn't have as big of an immediate impact as some would have expected, there could have been major liquidation that day, but not so much happened. As I posted elsewhere in the forum, the sell off in silver started within a few minutes of the Globex open on Sunday evening here in the US, it was a classic large move (perhaps a speculative attack) greatly aided by a typically thin holiday session with several countries closed. And once it got rolling many stops were probably triggered, with prices diving 12% in 11 minutes and only 6,000 silver futures contracts were traded in that time!

The Bin Laden news didn't even hit the headlines until a few hours later.
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Aug 9, 2010 22:02
In Thread: USD
Commodity spike queers the pitch for Bernanke's QE2

Don't be fooled: a food and oil price spike is not and cannot be inflationary in those advanced industrial economies where the credit system remains broken, the broad money supply is contracting, and fiscal policy is tightening by design or default.

It is deflationary, acting as a transfer tax to petro-powers and the agro-bloc. It saps demand from the rest of the economy. If recovery is already losing steam in the US, Japan, Italy, and France as the OECD's leading indicators suggest - or stalling altogether as some fear - the Eurasian wheat crisis will merely give them an extra shove over the edge.

Yields on two-year US Treasury debt fell last week to 0.50pc, the lowest in history. Core US inflation is the lowest since the mid-1960s. US business inflation (pricing power) is at zero. Bank lending is flat and securitised consumer credit has collapsed from $900bn to $240bn in the last year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7933235/Commodity-spike-queers-the-pitch-for-Bernankes-QE2.html


Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 1:45
In Thread: GBP
Yes indeed, gold would be a major safe haven, and oil would gain from the fear premium. Perhaps the CH would regain some momentum as well as a safe haven?
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Jul 23, 2010 2:33
Thanks for taking the time for that writeup stationdealer, some ineresting ideas to consider!
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Jul 22, 2010 15:16
Yes, oil is once again defying fundanmentals and logic, and if this current S and P breakout gains further momentum, could see it going towards 80 fairly easily. At times oil is basically a proxy for the US market, and that looks to be the case currently, yesterday's supply report is quickly forgotten. Emotion trumps reason more often than not. I am not shorting oil here for now unless it is for a quick ride intraday.
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Jul 21, 2010 15:37
Well, CL just took a major dive out of the blue, so you may do very well, we will see out the day turns out.
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Jul 20, 2010 19:50
This article below summed up for me much of what is wrong with the whole field of economics and why our systems are so messed up. In my training I was struck at how much mathematics was used in order to turn it into a hard science, when in essence economic behavior is highly influenced by herd behavior and quite emotional. In contrast to this academic view I have seen much wisdom in some of the simplest precepts from the Austrian school of econ, including some of the writings by Peter Schiff:

Economics is Hard. Dont Let Bloggers Tell You Otherwise

In this essay, I argue that neither non-economist bloggers, nor economists who portray economics especially macroeconomic policy as a simple enterprise with clear conclusions, are likely to contibute any insight to discussion of economics and, as a result, should be ignored by an open-minded lay public.

Writers who have not taken a year of PhD coursework in a decent economics department (and passed their PhD qualifying exams), cannot meaningfully advance the discussion on economic policy.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/33655771/Economics-is-Hard



Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Jul 16, 2010 21:53
In Thread: EUR
Stationdealer, thanks for the tip. Today's chart did look rather toppy and made me think about watching for a possible short opportunity coming early next week, do you have any other reasons for this call?
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Jul 14, 2010 13:37
In Thread: JPY
"An upcoming change to Japan's margin trading regulations will likely support the yen in the coming weeks. Some analysts estimate margin trading comprises as much as 20% to 30% of yen trading liquidity here on any given day.

Last year, the Financial Services Agency announced it would set limits on how much foreign-exchange investors can buy on margin, in order to protect "Mrs. Watanabe" - no relation to the Your Party leader. The common surname has become the collective moniker for Japan's retail investors, in a country where housewives are often in charge of family budget and investment decisions.

The plan calls for the leverage cap to be set at 50 times the amount of principle cash committed starting in August, and then further cut to 25 times next year.

The rule change came after a spate of local media reports about some of these housewives losing huge sums, trading on margin hundreds of times the minimum amount they were required to invest up front to open their accounts.

Tohru Sasaki, chief foreign-exchange strategist for Japan at J.P. Morgan Securities in Tokyo, estimated in a report this week that "Mr. and Mrs.Watanabe" hold about 6 trillion yen ($67 billion) of short-yen positions, which he said is "almost the same level as the peak in 2007."

While Sasaki doesn't expect a flood of unwinding, he does expect some yen-buying stemming from the new regulations, as the Watanabes unwind their positions to comply with the new rules."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-term-yen-support-is-real-2010-07-14?link=kiosk
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Jul 11, 2010 19:57
In Thread: WorldCup2010
Well, Ashraf's warning about Webb is appropriate, I don't like some of these calls at all!