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70 Posts Total by "raulin":
64 Posts by member
raulin
(london, United Kingdom)
6 Posts by Anonymous "raulin":
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raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 25, 2009 12:29
In Thread: NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63
Head and shoulders has become a pattern to trade against. usd/jpy, gbp/jpy so many failed head and shoulders and the S&P and Dow in the dailies were failed head and shoulders though no doubt exponents will say that yes on the weeklies there were inverted head and shoulders.Poor predictive accuracy.
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 24, 2009 19:18
In Thread: NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63
Ashraf ..Do you have data on the positive predictive value in head and shoulders pattern when neckline broken? It should be 70 percent plus but I don't think it's anywhere near that.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 22:40
In Thread: USDJPY 4-week Cycles
I think with intel profits we go to 97.20 at least in u/j we triple bottomed at 91.70 hence this will drag all jpy pairs with it to upside if we can hold key key 93.50 level a break on a H4 chart is necessary. It is important news that a tech is selling and making profits and beating expectations that is necessary to sustain a recovery. I am bearish overall but you cannot get in the way of a train.!!
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 13:21
In Thread: NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63
Ashraf. I think it is more complicated than interest rate differential. Aussie only rallied vs kiwi for the month of April since then it has been falling, clearly we have equity rally March till end June, the months of March April May kiwi has been stronger relatively
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 22:36
In Thread: NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63
Ashraf Intuitively with higher interest rate it looked as if aussie was appreciating more with equities rising than NZD BUT this does not seem to have been the case and if anything NZD was appreciating more hence it looked a better short when equities fall I struggle to explain why NZD should be doing better than aussie so I am staying away from shorts.
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 17:54
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
Spec are you answering your own questions ? You asked why gold has sold off so much? Then you give a reason for it based on technicals ?
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 13:30
In Thread: CADJPY's Next Target
Buying usd/cad on basis of oil weakening intensely frustrating exercise! Oil fell from a high of almost 73 on 30 June with USD/CAD highs of 1.1637 on that day and fallen to less than 60 dollars at one stage and all usd/cad can do is get to 1.1723 and despite oil falling it fell to 1.1436! It is currently range bound and needs to break and stay above 1.1650 for further appreciation but having said that it is in daily uptrend which does favour buying on the dips with 1.1550-80 attractive level to buy.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 12:54
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
Spec Gold has fallen so much because we are likely in a longterm deflationary environment. It would take earnings data to be spectacularly positive to shake equities slide , rememmber there has been no bottom established in house prices unemployment is going up and we have more bad news to come in euopean banks. Look at Japan's latest data producer prices which fell at a record pace in June. On June 30, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen expressed some deep concerns about deflation. Ill put my cards on the table right away, she said. I think the predominant risk is that inflation will be too low, not too high, over the next several years.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 12:37
In Thread: NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63
Hi Ashraf
I see AUD/NZD has fallen thro its 200 day SMA for first time since early Jan yet I cannot see it going below 78.6 retracement of current yrly lows at 1.2216. Arguably NZD has benefitted most from equity rises and should fall most ..What are your views on the pair?

kind regards
Raulin
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 19:23
In Thread: Where will EURUSD close by end of June?
I am really worried. Looks like the majority got the view right on where e/u would finish! Seriously I think small traders get the direction AND target right a lot of the time but lose out on position size, stop loss and shorting at support or longing at resistance.
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