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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Apr 15, 2009 16:14
Comments: 40
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Selective Carry Trades in FX/Equities

Currency selection becomes more relevant on evolving risk appetite.
 
 
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Ismail
Baku, Azerbaijan
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 23:28
Hi Ashraf,
Do you think DBV is a good way to express bullish l-t view on AUD, NZD and NOK? Do you agree that basically whether one is bullish gold (especially long-term) depends on whether one is bullish/bearish USD; in other words, you can't be bullish re both? Many thanks.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 23:04
Hey Ashraf,

We got the close of S&P above 865 - now what? Does that basically just confirm that the equity rally will last another 2-3 weeks, as opposed to fizzling out sooner?
Also, out of the "short" funds, which do you prefer? SDS, RSW, DOG? And what level do you think we'll see in the DOW and/or S&P that should trigger a "buy" signal for something like SDS, etc.? Thanks a lot.
Frank
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 21:58
Hi Ashraf

Thanks for the info on NZD ..

What about gold , it's falling against all currencies now .. If we get a equities decline will gold raise with the USD against the other currencies or will gold fall with other currencies against the USD ?

Thanks

Frank
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 20:45
Ed, rising equities definitely a PLUS for NOK and NZD, but i remain more in favour of NOK as NZD tends to show fatser downside on equity pullbacks. and we will have these in 2-3 weeks time. NOK is the better long term play.

Frank, if you're making money in NZD then start taking some off the table. start getting defensive again by holding less high yielders and hold more of USD, and less of CAD. Snap up some Aussie at 0.7130-50.

Ashraf
Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 32
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 18:49
Hi Ashraf

I'm holding NZD , should i hold NZD for a long term trade or sell them for Aussie or CAD or Back to USD ?

Thanks

Frank
Ed
United States
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 13:48
Hi Ashraf, great info, as usual. What is your view/targets of the NZD and NOK vs the USD?

Thanks,

Ed
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 12:30
HD, if S&P500 drops 20% from here, then we can expect at least 1.26-2.7 in USDCAD.

Ashraf
HD
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 4
15 years ago
Apr 16, 2009 5:22
hi Ashraf, based on the analysis above, can we expect the USDCAD to head up towards 1.25 if my view is for the S&p500 to correct 20% or so?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 15, 2009 18:05
FL, more likely for cable to breach above $1.5030 and onto $1.5270, than for USDJPY to break 101.60.

Ashraf
FL
GuangZhou, China
Posts: 14
15 years ago
Apr 15, 2009 17:04
Hi Ashraf,

Sees many relevances from the above picture,Analysis quite splendid.

1.GBP/USD NY time Already respected opinion 1.5030, Whether to have the short line call-back the risk. or You thought that the reorganization will launch the further rise from now on.

2.USD/JPY From 101.60 Downward 98.10 Already passed through bounces 99.30 You regard as fall the tendency the bounce? or Stops falls the bounce to test once again 101.60 Favorable turn.

Thanks a lot
Francis
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