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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 10, 2009 18:17
Comments: 208
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar

Intermarket analysis set-up still suggests that fresh equity selling remains the only source of support for the US currency.
 
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Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 23:00
Hey, Rob
I always check many Japanese profession traders' blogs, because I can speak Japanese. They are talking about selling Yen and bullish commodity currencies.

I am considering sell some Yen and buy some commodity currencies. But be ware that if the market collapses again, Yen will be the first place for safety, maybe not USD again. So be careful of it and always use the stop loss on your position.

By the way, the most thing they are talking about is AUD/YEN. They say that the target for this year is 86.

Good luck!!
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 20:33
Hey Ashraf,

Great interview - in fleshing out more details of the markets. How do you feel about plays for the Asian session tonight? I'm sure the Nkkei will rise, given the fall yesterday and the gains in Europe and US today. Do you feel it would be good idea to go long GBP/JPY or EUR/JPY? They do seem to have a strong resistance at 162.00 and 138.00 though. Any thoughts are always appreciated. Thanks
simon
gauteng, South Africa
Posts: 23
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 19:20
Would an increase in the CPI figures next week be in line with what the bond market has been doing in the last week or two.

Thanks

Simon
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 15:05
Hamish, sorry to hear. the notion of falling dollar (neutral to positive stocks) still in play.

Carlco, dot.com bubble was mixed for dollar. If you have my book, chapters 3 and 4 tell you exactly what happned to each of the main 7 currencies in each year from 1999 to 2007 and why. again, new selling wave in equities is sen as dollar positive. keep an eye on Latvia. Read the links and updates i post on my twitter site twitter/alaidi.com

Ashraf
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 11:28
look at the number of doji's the S&P has had this last week or so, its like 5 points trading range per day. Does this mean BIG falls ahead? from 2007 high's to march 09 lows we have a fibonacci range of about 880-1010 (23.6 & 38.2) hey we are at 943 today which is half way between the two! someone make their minds up out there, the suspense is killing me, Ashraf has there ever been such a scenario ie dot com bubble moment like this? and if so what happened to the $. Falling equities has to yet again reinforce your audusd pair amazing!
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 11:08
dollar will kick *** after summer.
hamish
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 8:26
Rob & Speculator..........Thanks for your response. Last year did very well just listening to Ashraf & religiously keying on pivots & R & S levels. Early this year decided I needed more sophistication to eliminate some of my gross trading errors (greed) and attempted chart analysis. A complete disaster as in quick order lost all my profits & then some!!
So now back to square one & am now determined to resolve my chart analysis inadequacy.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 8:24
i like the sneaky way russia started pulling some of its US bonds, watch out for more sneaky signs, i just don't think any more good news is left to come, surely its time for a retest of indexes support levels?? whose going to blink first though :)
hedge
Singapore
Posts: 9
15 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 2:11
Ashraf, you pointed out the dowjones had 4 bearish stars. and it created a selloff and the result was dollar strength. so the thesis/theory of your workbook and the examples used in it still works. i see nikkei index going to negative territory and dollar back up a bit. does that mean more dollar increase in europe?

hedged
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jun 10, 2009 23:29
Hey, Mo
I just long AUD and CAD by half position. I think the price is very choppy now. I will entry another half when I see the signal clear. I think there is 50% chance that USD will continue its downtrend, and 50% is USD will rally for a while. Let's see how market play out tomorrow.


Everyone, specially like banks avoid to talk about USD collapse now, I think the rule is like this: don't tell and don't ask. No one is buying USD at this point. USD is a bomb, you never know when it will blow off everyone. Even the central banks are considering about it now......
Maybe I am wrong, who knows.

Good luck with your positions !! I suggest you to rise your stop loss at break even.....
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