Forum - June Seasonals in Equities (Topic)

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

15 years ago

Jun 15, 2009 0:32

jono, momentum looks tired.
http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/

Ashraf

Jono

Posts: 2

15 years ago

Jun 14, 2009 21:41

Ashraf - there seems to be a golden cross coming shortly in the DJI and FTSE, which is seen as a buy sign. How do you see this relating to your negative outlook on equities? Thanks in advance

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

15 years ago

Jun 12, 2009 15:18

thks Qin

Ashraf

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Jun 12, 2009 12:09

Hey, Ashraf
I fully understand that you are busy with your business.

And thank you for answering me the question.

Best regards
Qin

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

15 years ago

Jun 12, 2009 11:21

taha, i see 40% chance of that happening by September.

Qin, pls do not as me about very short term positions as i cannot answer questions every 15 minutes on this forum. Both AUD and CAD did very well yesterday but are now retreating. The game flow has not changed. dollar-selling remains order of the day and profitatking bouts occur evey now and then.

Simon, i think 10-2 yr spread has more to go. And stocks' rally remains "too perfect".

Ashraf

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Jun 11, 2009 20:06

Hey, Simon
I really think that market is using any reason to sell USD now.....

If the bond rising, people will say it will be inflation and short USD and long AUD, CAD.......If the bond drop, they say equity is improving.....the result is selling USD and bullish stocks.

The only question should be the timing now......Hope USD will rise a little bit now......I am very disappointed that I closed my positions before the US report came out today.

Best regards
Qin

simon

gauteng, South Africa

Posts: 23

15 years ago

Jun 11, 2009 19:49

Sorry ............... please do answer Quin first

Simon

simon

gauteng, South Africa

Posts: 23

15 years ago

Jun 11, 2009 19:47

I think it looks bullish

But......... I do take all of what you say into account.

I see your Equity vs USD article today too.

As regards stocks though, i think it is fair to say any pull back "should" be temporary "at the moment"

Phew....... Your book too has got me thinking ......... I see 10 year yield dropped today and 2 year has stayed where it ended on friday just about.......... Do you think the 10 - 2 spread is peaking ??

You did say the economy and stocks lag the curve by months to year or so

Also ............ Oil / Gold ratio i am sure is on the up.

But i do think stocks look bullish now ........ If it made a 1-2-3 then i would say bearish ..... But to me S&P looks like it has made a channel congestion since 1st June. It has even made a succession of higher lows since 1st June.

I am guessing and clutching at straws now, but ............ CPI next week ........... Did you hear something about businesses still needing to burn off a lot of inventories ?

Always nice to hear your thoughts

Thanks

Simon

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Jun 11, 2009 17:09

Hey, ashraf
I really need some advice.
I closed my long AUD and CAD, short USD positions before the US report came out. Because the report and today's movement would be good for USD. Unfortunately, I was wrong.

So do you see any profit taking evidence in the near term?? I am wondering that if need to short USD and long CAD and AUD again at this very high price.

I am sitting and watching it now, specially watch USD/CAD, hope it can hold above 1.0950 until tomorrow, maybe make the chart flat again. Then maybe it would be the reversal signal again.
Otherwise, USD/CAD will towards 1.05......I don't want to lose the chance.

Best regards
Qin

taha

Cairo, Egypt

Posts: 50

15 years ago

Jun 11, 2009 16:51

Hi Ashraf ,
Some experts see that DOW will hit 12000 by september and S&P will hit 800s before hit 1000 .
Your commnet please .
Taha