EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
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As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Euro can hit above 1.35 by next weekend. End of the year, Euro will be above 150
There is an approaching run on the dollar in the next year or so.
The main catalyst for Dollar is slowing US growth.
Q4 09 was 5.6, Q1 10 was 2.7 and Q2 10 is approaching - in my estmate this may come around 2% or lower and by Q4 the US GDP could slow down to sub 1% with the effects of the stimulus fully consumed. That is the story for the 2nd half.
China is flying two kites. One is the US bonds and the other is Europeon bonds. The string that China uses to fly these kites is its huge forein reserves. When China did not buy the greek bonds, the Euro fell. When China came in to buy the Spanish bonds, the Euro picked up. Similarly, the main factor in Dollar's strenth has been the Chinease apetite for US treasuries.
China has no interest in allowing its currency to appreciate. It is using its low currency to develop itself by taking jobs from other parts of the world. A strong appreciation in the Yuan would result in a slow down in china and result in political instability.
So, China needs to keep buying the Dollar to prevent it from collapsing and at the same time keep the Euro up. A Euro dollar rate of 1.5 is ideal for the Chinese. Euro below 1.20 is a big problem and the dollar collapsing is also a big problem. In between these two events, the Chinese will keep switcihng.
Once Euro stabilizes above 1.3 - 140, the next problem for China is a large slow down in US and a free fall for the Dollar. China will deal with this by keep buying the treasuries and at some point will repeg to the Dollar.
The assumption that Dollar will remain the currency of choice in a risk averse environment will change when the markets drop and the dollar will drop.
Commodites and BRIC currencies may be the best winner in the long term along with metals and commodities.
Dollar bulls (calling for the start of a multi year bull market in the dollar index) are in for a big shock.
You can't fight the market, you can't fight central banks, and you certainly can't fight the Chinese (if it was them), unless perhaps you are George Soros (but he is big and important enough that he probably gets insider tip-offs :) ).
What would you say is a safer trade at this point?
Gold? (joke).
I smell something ... recent EURUSD rally has nothing to do with analysts' fairy tales of turning
sentiment of merrily tug-of-war playing bulls and bears...
the best to do is to quit trading eur and usd for a while. EURUSD is now a matter of scalping or swing trading with narrow sl i think eurusd could well go above 131 as well as plunge to 127 and even parity is not out of sight as stress test looms ( perhaps banks taking in liquidity was a cause of eur spiking) and possible default of eur denominated loans to hungary etc. is not off the table ... worrysome is UST 10 y yield cannot defend even 3% ... i think after 127 eurusd may head to 131 ..but there are safer trades
imo moves of this magnitude seen EURUSD within a day is not resulting from closing speculative positions rather it must be CB operations.
ibadan, Nigeria
June 18, 2010 14:43 ET
Member since Mar 2010 In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
by month end euro is going to 131 and pound 155 cad to parity aud to 90 levels oil to 84 and gold to 1300 silver to 20 area good luck dont ever short again
the euro and pound were almost there wait for remaining