Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 21, 2008 1:37
Comments: 525
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

Speculators' Futures FX Positions

The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 14:31
thanks Jack !

Ashraf
JackD
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 13:12
Dear Ashraf,

I don't think enough of us have given you the acknowledgment you fully earn and deserve. Thank-you for all you do and all that you put up with to maintain this site and answering our questions. You are a treasure!!!

An appreciative fan,

Jack Dee
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 12:58
spec, it was low enough. dont use contrarianism as a blind guide. only good when it makes sense

Ashraf
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 11:23
ashraf was dollar bearishness as high as it is now? 3% bulls is remarkable
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 11:10
Spec, its good to always question the consensus, especially when its overwhelmingly slanted the same way i.e. the negative dollar forecast. I am confident that well have a shortlived USD bounce in early autumn followed by one-way decline in Q4 as the BRICs, Australia and NewZealand take off. I mentioned several times to you on this forum how a global recovery has proven to be synonymous with USD weakness. And by the way, do you remember how USD sentiment was predominantly BAD in mid 2003 and how that did NOT stop USD from falling in 2003 and 2004. 2005 was a blip due to HIA flows (as my book explained fully in chapter 1)

alrtightie now, time to go see that falling CAD again

Ashraf
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 10:57


Hello Ashraf ,
Hello Asad ,

Thanks you very much for yours answers.
I really apreciate your work and your support Ashraf , so...keep up your gooood work.
And Asad , my friend , i"ll never cross my mind when i ask about the oil to doubt about analyses of Mr. Laidi ( maybe my english is not so good : )... because i am short on crude brent oil in 74.27 (ICE"s quotes) and this position is momentarly pretty red i ask him that...

Regards and good luck
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 10:56
ashraf agreed 80% remark. concensus is not always right and I dont fall in to that category.

what do you have to say about the ultra bearish stance of traders in regards to the dollar? apparently, such bearishness has happend only a few times in history and normally follows a contrarian reversal. does that not signal anything?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 9:36
spec, you sound so surprised that we had quantitative easing as well as the crisis that caused it? Again, i know of at least 15 people individually (myself included) who were expecting US monetary policy to become another Japan. i.e. at zero%. As for the so-called "market", well i dont care much for what the market thinks. in July 2008 Mr Market priced 80% chance of US rate HIKE occuring in Sept 2008 and I was on TV and rest of media saying Mr Market was totally wrong. Now, if you're refering to those plain vanilla research reports written by brokerages and banks aimed at keeping their clients "out of panic mode" saying stocks are good buy for long haul then be go ahead and focus on them. The likes of Bill gross, Mohamed El Erian, Faber, Roubini, James Grant and Ron Insana (who wrote the foreword for my book) saw a huge drop as well as zero % rates.

So let's move on and focus what the technicals and true fundamentals are syaing rather than the conensus is saying.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 7:32
qin, i am not even a trader.

the point is 1.70 never actually cable didnt sustain.

theres only 3% of traders dollar bullish at present. this is highly bullish for the dollar going forward. wait and see.

happy trading
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 2:19
Here is an example of how bad it can be to put in Automatic stop-loss in to your trading system....

EUR/NOK pair dipping down to extreme values. Forex markets showing volatility yes, but this shows also that there are some systems out there "cheating". My guess, some brokers gather their Stop Loss from customers and "sell" it. This is an extreme example, dipping the EUR/NOK from 8,6452 to 2.4481 Intraday, then go straight up again..... WTF?

I have surely been dropped out many times on a STOP LOSS that I set in to my program.
Trading with "banana-currencies" like the NOK or SEK.... I think it is better to keep the STOP LOSS in the mind, don't set it in the program.
However.... this example is totally unacceptable for any trader.
Check it out.
http://bildr.no/view/468001
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