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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 22, 2011 0:37
Comments: 21
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Fed's Twist, ECB's Turn, Euro Shouts

Today's Operation Twist by the Fed confirms US monetary policy will be inadequately dovish to boost EURUSD and weigh on USD
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
8 years ago
Sep 26, 2011 5:22
Usikpa,

1.29 is my next main target. said it on here loud and clear. And if you subscribe to the Premium service, you would see where i have my minor and more important MAJOR resistance for that corrective move.

Dave,

When i refer to corrective waves, i do not adhere to EW theory. But thanks for that. Actually, why not elaborate?

Saka,

We were short USDJPY throughout May/June before calling that rebound towards 78-79, now I am neutral (no real strong opinion on it). But if i had to chose, I have BEARISH bias on USDJPY.

Ashraf
Saka
China
Posts: 29
8 years ago
Sep 23, 2011 3:21
dear Ashraf,
I have shorted eu yeasterday, but it seems that It is more better to short AU or UC. I also have longed uj for almost a month, I think Bank of Japan can't tolerant it cracks 76.00 level. I mean, is this the top of Yen?
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
8 years ago
Sep 22, 2011 13:57
One cannot say whether corrective moves will be multipe and shallow except in wave 3's playing in any 5 wave sequence on your timeframe in play. Also the the shorter term vicissitudes of economic stats will synchronise.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
8 years ago
Sep 22, 2011 7:07
Ashraf,

In your view, will the corrective moves be multiple and shallow, or 1.29 is the level for a major correction to start? Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
8 years ago
Sep 22, 2011 5:45
Djellal,

Outright QE3 means expanding the balance sheet which currently faces opposition w/in the Fed as well as POLITICAL opposition. They will Re-try FX swaps & USD injections then perhaps cutting rates on Onite reserves.

I see 10% chance of QE3 this year. Lots of opposition to it


Ashraf
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
8 years ago
Sep 22, 2011 4:22
Ashraf,

Don't you think that thanks to this twist opration fed will have the possibility to do a QEIII ?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
8 years ago
Sep 22, 2011 4:04
And the challenge is to steer through the corrective moves in the midst of the main downcycle.


Ashraf
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
8 years ago
Sep 22, 2011 2:42
This is very insightful analysis on an important cycle, Ashraf. Thank you for your generosity in sharing it with us! This gives us traders a nice framework of reference for the next few months, some important things to keep in mind with all the noisy headlines out there.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
8 years ago
Sep 22, 2011 1:33
Nice work !