Forum > View Topic (Poll)
Against which currency, will GBP fall the most this year?
JPY
 
 37%
NZD
 
 3%
AUD
 
 7%
CAD
 
 7%
EUR
 
 13%
CHF
 
 6%
USD
 
 27%
View Poll..
This thread was started in response to the Poll:

Against which currency, will GBP fall the most this year?

 
freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
7 months ago
Apr 11, 2019 14:18
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evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
7 months ago
Apr 7, 2019 22:43
Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Introduction
Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. According to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. Signals can also be generated by looking for divergences, failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend.

RSI is an extremely popular momentum indicator that has been featured in a number of articles, interviews and books over the years. In particular, Constance Brown's book, Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, features the concept of bull market and bear market ranges for RSI. Andrew Cardwell, Brown's RSI mentor, introduced positive and negative reversals for RSI and, additionally, turned the notion of divergence, literally and figuratively, on its head.

Wilder features RSI in his 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. This book also includes the Parabolic SAR, Average True Range and the Directional Movement Concept (ADX). Despite being developed before the computer age, Wilder's indicators have stood the test of time and remain extremely popular.
Conclusion
RSI is a versatile momentum oscillator that has stood the test of time. Despite changes in volatility and the markets over the years, RSI remains as relevant now as it was in Wilder's days. While Wilder's original interpretations are useful to understanding the indicator, the work of Brown and Cardwell takes RSI interpretation to a new level. Adjusting to this level takes some rethinking on the part of the traditionally schooled chartists. Wilder considers overbought conditions ripe for a reversal, but overbought can also be a sign of strength. Bearish divergences still produce some good sell signals, but chartists must be careful in strong trends when bearish divergences are actually normal. Even though the concept of positive and negative reversals may seem to undermine Wilder's interpretation, the logic makes sense and Wilder would hardly dismiss the value of putting more emphasis on price action. Positive and negative reversals put price action of the underlying security first and the indicator second, which is the way it should be. Bearish and bullish divergences place the indicator first and price action second. By putting more emphasis on price action, the concept of positive and negative reversals challenges our thinking towards momentum oscillators.
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Relative Strength Index (RSI)
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california, United States
Posts: 0
7 months ago
Apr 4, 2019 7:28
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evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
7 months ago
Apr 1, 2019 17:48
Keltner Channels

Uptrend and forex trading signals
The chart below shows Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) starting an uptrend as the Keltner Channels turn up and the stock surges above the upper channel line. ADM was in a clear downtrend in April-May as prices continued to pierce the lower channel. With a strong thrust up in June, prices exceeded the upper channel and the channel turned up to start a new uptrend. Notice that prices held above the lower channel on dips in early and late July.

Even with a new uptrend established, it is often prudent to wait for a pullback or better entry point to improve the reward-to-risk ratio. Momentum oscillators or other indicators can then be employed to define oversold readings. This chart shows StochRSI, one of the more sensitive momentum oscillators, dipping below .20 to become oversold at least three times during the uptrend. The subsequent crosses back above .20 signaled a resumption of the uptrend.
Downtrend and free forex signals
The second chart shows Nvidia (NVDA) starting a downtrend with a sharp decline below the lower channel line. After this initial break, the stock met resistance near the 20-day EMA (middle line) from mid-May until early August. The inability to even come close to the upper channel line showed strong downside pressure.

A 10-period Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown as the momentum oscillator to identify short-term overbought conditions. A move above 100 is considered overbought. A subsequent move back below 100 signals a resumption of the downtrend. This signal worked well until September. These failed signals indicated a possible trend change that was subsequently confirmed with a break above the upper channel line.
free forex signals and Flat Trend
Once a trading range or flat trading environment has been identified, traders can use the Keltner Channels free forex signals to identify overbought and oversold levels. A trading range can be identified with a flat moving average and the Average Directional Index (ADX). The chart below shows IBM fluctuating between support in the 120-122 area and resistance in the 130-132 area from February to late September. The 20-day EMA, middle line, lagged price action, but flattened out from April to September.
The indicator window shows ADX (black line) confirming a weak trend. Low and falling ADX shows a weak trend. High and rising ADX shows a strong trend. ADX was below 40 the entire time and below 30 most of the time. This reflects the absence of a trend. Also, notice that ADX peaked in early June and fell until late August.

Armed with the prospects of a weak trend and trading range, traders can use Keltner Channels to anticipate reversals. In addition, notice that the channel lines often coincide with chart support and resistance. IBM dipped below the lower channel line three times from late May until late August. These dips provided low-risk entry points. The stock did not manage to reach the upper channel line, but did get close as it reversed in the resistance zone. The Disney chart shows a similar situation.

Keltner Channels are a trend following indicator designed to identify the underlying trend.Trend identification is more than half the battle. The trend can be up, down or flat. Using the methods described above, traders and investors can identify the trend to establish a trading preference. Bullish free forex signals are favored in an uptrend and bearish trades are favored in a downtrend. A flat trend requires a more nimble approach because prices often peak at the upper channel line and trough at the lower channel line. As with all analysis techniques, Keltner Channels should be used in conjunction with other indicators and analysis. Momentum indicators offer a good complement to the trend-following Keltner Channels. https://www.freeforex-signals.com/


evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
7 months ago
Mar 29, 2019 20:02
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evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
8 months ago
Mar 23, 2019 15:25
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evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
8 months ago
Mar 19, 2019 23:21
What Is Support?

Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excesses of supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.

What Is Support?
Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Support and Resistance example chart from StockCharts.com

Support does not always hold, however, and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.

Where Is Support Established?
Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support. As technical analysis is not an exact science, setting precise support levels can often be difficult. In addition, price movements can be volatile and briefly dip below support. For example, it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes an eighth below the established support level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.
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evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
8 months ago
Mar 17, 2019 22:45
Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy

Introduction
Even though the name implies one cloud, the Ichimoku Cloud is really a set of indicators designed as a standalone trading system. These indicators can be used to identify support and resistance, determine trend direction and generate trading signals. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, which is the full name, translates into “one look equilibrium chart”. With one look, chartists can identify the trend and look for potential signals within that trend.
Strategy

Chartists use the actual cloud to identify the overall trend and establish a trading bias. Once a trading bias is established, chartists will wait for a correction when prices cross the Base Line (red line). An actual signal triggers when prices cross the Conversion Line (blue line) to signal an end to the correction.

This trading strategy will set three criteria for a bullish signal. First, the trading bias is bullish when prices are above the lowest line of the cloud. In other words, prices are either above the cloud or remain above cloud support. Second, price moves below the Base Line to signal a pullback and improve the risk-reward ratio for new long positions. Third, a bullish signal triggers when prices reverse and move above the Conversion Line.

As you can see, the three criteria will not be met in just one day. There is a pecking order to the process. First, the trend is bullish as defined by the cloud. Second, the stock pulls back with a move below the Base Line. Third, the stock turns back up with a move above the Conversion Line.

Buy Signal Recap:

Price is above the lowest line of the cloud (bullish bias)
Price moves below the Base Line (pullback)
Price Moves above the Conversion Line (upturn)

There are also three criteria for a bearish signal. First, the trading bias is bearish when prices are below the highest line of the cloud. This means price is either below the cloud or has yet to break above cloud resistance. Second, price moves above the Base Line to signal a bounce within a bigger downtrend. Third, a bearish signal triggers when prices reverse and move below the Conversion Line.

Sell Signal Recap:

Price is below the highest line of the cloud (bearish bias)
Price moves above the Base Line (bounce)
Price moves below the Conversion Line (downturn)

Conclusion
This Ichimoku Cloud system provides chartists with a means to identify a trading bias, identify corrections and time turning points. The cloud sets the overall tone and provides a longer perspective on the price trend. The Conversion Line (blue) is a relatively short-term indicator designed to catch turns early. Catching the turn early will improve the risk-reward ratio for trades. Keep in mind that this article is designed as a starting point for trading system development. Use these ideas to augment your trading style, risk-reward preferences, and personal judgments. Click here for a chart of IBM with the Ichimoku trading strategy.
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Muhammad Ishaq Khan
Dera Ismail khan, Pakistan
Posts: 0
8 months ago
Mar 16, 2019 15:02
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evapattern
gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en, Egypt
Posts: 0
8 months ago
Mar 14, 2019 18:49
Bollinger Band Squeeze Strategy
The Bollinger Band Squeeze is a straightforward strategy that is relatively simple to implement. First, look for securities with narrowing Bollinger Bands and low BandWidth levels. Ideally, BandWidth should be near the low end of its six-month range. Second, wait for a band break to signal the start of a new move. An upside bank break is bullish, while a downside band break is bearish. Note that narrowing bands do not provide any directional clues. They simply infer that volatility is contracting and chartists should be prepared for a volatility expansion, which means a directional move.

BandWidth Signal Recap:
Bollinger Bands narrow on the price chart.
The BandWidth is near the low end of its six-month range.
Price breaks above the upper band or below the lower band.
Trading Signals
Even though the Bollinger Band Squeeze is straight forward, chartists should at least combine this strategy with basic chart analysis to confirm signals. For example, a break above resistance can be used to confirm a break above the upper band. Similarly, a break below support can be used to confirm a break below the lower band. Unconfirmed band breaks are subject to failure.

The chart below shows Starbucks (SBUX) with two signals within a two-month period, which is relatively rare. After a surge in March, the stock consolidated with an extended trading range. SBUX broke the lower band twice, but did not break support from the mid-March low. Basic chart analysis reveals a falling wedge type pattern. Notice that this pattern formed after a surge in early March, which makes it a bullish continuation pattern. SBUX subsequently broke above the upper band and then broke resistance for confirmation.

After the surge above 40, the stock again moved into a consolidation phase as the bands narrowed and BandWidth fell back to the low end of its range. Another setup was in the making as the surge and flat consolidation formed a bull flag in July. Despite this bullish pattern, SBUX never broke the upper band or resistance. Instead, SBUX broke the lower band and support, which led to a sharp decline.

Tweaking
Because the Bollinger Band Squeeze does not provide any directional clues, chartists must use other aspects of technical analysis to anticipate or confirm a directional break. In addition to basic chart analysis, chartists can also apply complimentary indicators to look for signs of buying or selling pressure within the consolidation. Momentum oscillators and moving averages are of little value during a consolidation because these indicators simply flatten along with price action. Instead, chartists should consider using volume-based indicators, such as the Accumulation Distribution Line, Chaikin Money Flow, the Money Flow Index (MFI) or On Balance Volume (OBV). Signs of accumulation increase the chances of an upside breakout, while signs of distribution increase the chances of a downside break.


The chart above shows Lowes Companies (LOW) with the Bollinger Band Squeeze occurring in April 2011. The bands moved to their narrowest range in months as volatility contracted. The indicator window shows Chaikin Money Flow weakening in March and turning negative in April. Notice that CMF reached its lowest level since January and continued lower into early May. Negative readings in Chaikin Money Flow reflect distribution or selling pressure that can be used to anticipate or confirm a support break in the stock.


The example above shows Intuit (INTU) with a Bollinger Band Squeeze in September and breakout in early October. During the squeeze, notice how On Balance Volume (OBV) continued to move higher, which showed accumulation during the September trading range. Signs of buying pressure or accumulation increased the chances of an upside breakout.

Before breaking out, the stock opened below the lower band and then closed back above the band. Notice that a piercing pattern formed, which is a bullish candlestick reversal pattern. This pattern reinforced support and follow through foreshadowed the upside breakout.
Conclusion
The Bollinger Band Squeeze is a trading strategy designed to find consolidations with decreasing volatility. In its purest form, this strategy is neutral and the ensuing break can be up or down. Chartists, therefore, must employ other aspects of technical analysis to formulate a trading bias to act before the break or confirm the break. Acting before the break will improve the risk-reward ratio. Keep in mind that this article is designed as a starting point for trading system development. Use these ideas to augment your trading style, risk-reward preferences and personal judgments. Click here for a chart of the S&P 500 ETF with Bollinger Bands and the BandWidth indicator.gold trading signals daily and gold technical analysis and trading wave on www.gold-pattern.com/en