DXY Net Longs
The upper panel of the chart shows net speculative longs in the futures contract of US Dollar Index (formerly Chicago Mercantile Exchange now Intercontinental Exchange). See how sentiment has improved from net shorts to 328 net longs contracts (longs exceed shorts by 328), to enter positive territory for the first time since June 2025. There are 2 occasions when positioning entered positive before territory before dropping back to negative, dragging the US dollar--August 2009 and November 2020. Will this time prove the same and lead to fresh selling in the US dollar? Tenporary gains in DXY mean DXY will remain capped near 98 (55DMA), while EURUSD supported around 1.1750/70 also near the 55 DMA.
If you prefer to receive these daily analysis into your mailbox and not miss an update, then feel free to register (free) in "My Account" section in the upper rightcorner of the website. If you already have a username and forgot your password then email us to for a password reset, or use another username (email) and most importantly click to "Subscribe to Newsletter".
Read More...
The chart below shows the rising odds of a US Strike on Iran from Polymarket. My latest video shows gold's initial reluctance to rally alongside oil. We keep watching the odds from polymarket as well as the shrinking probabilities of March Fed rate cut. See full video here.
Read More...US Crude oil is up more than 6% on rising expectations of a US attack on Iran. Gold, however, is more muted, up 3%. Is there a reason? Yes, we know oil is more impacted by supply lines in Hormuz Strait. But gold is unable to show the same gains we saw last year on Iran tensions. Why? Will gold rally back to 5100? Can US crude hit $70?
Read More...
