The Nvidia Reversal
Nvidia earnings are due today after the closing bell. Research from Bloomberg (see chart below) indicates that gains or losses seen in the S&P500 emerging on the day of the releases, were usually reversed following day. With earnings guidance already elevated and stock up 30% off the March lows, there remains ample room for disappointment. Will the S&P500 bounce be sold the next day? Bloomberg highlights the number "$1 trillion", referring to CEO Jensen Huang's minimum projection for sales of Blackwell and Rubin AI chips in 2027. There's also the possibility of rising input/energy costs. Also, is the S&P500 or Nasdaq100 showing a right shoulder top near 7450 and 29350 respectively?
Here is a short video on the 2600 Cycles in SPX and how 1300 leads to 6200 on the S&P500. Watch here.
Read More...Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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