Posted Feb 12, 10:04

Typical Trading Errors

10 hours ago:

Small Traders (small in experience or in size of account) often make the common error of losing focus and exiting a trade too early. Not necessarily because it is losing money, but because it is "doing nothing". They want action every day. It's premature and silly. Take a look at USDJPY for instance. Yesterday's NFP release showed a surprise jump of 2x expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. USDJPY jumped from 153.49 to 154.60, then immediately fell back to 153.00, returned to 154.00 before sliding to 152.26. There is NOISE & there is SIGNAL. Here is a 90-second video of the trade shorting USDJPY above 155 on Monday.

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Trade Tips from Washington DC Feb 11, 2026 9:56:

We all knew the Trump Administration wants a weak US dollar. But when the following remarks (see image below) are all made in a matter of 2 days just ahead of NFP (NFP is Today not Friday), then they sound like free trading tips from Washington to sell the US dollar. Such US dollar approach is known as "Benign Neglect", implicitely talking down the value of the US dollar, seen in the 1970s, mid 1980s & early 2000s. Does this mean NFP today will be 15K, or even 0 and not the 68K expected by consensus? Have you noticed the recent practice to show stable unemployment rate but weak payrolls? Anyway, I already shared my "sell USDJPY" and "Long XAGUSD" trades with the WhatsApp Bdcst Group on Monday and Tuesday. The USDJPY trendline from the April low thru the July & Sep lows suggests 151 is a realistic destination. Dont forget CPI on Friday. How about you? What did you do?

The Signal is Finally Here Feb 10, 2026 11:09:

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