Capturing 2000 points & 4840
On March 30th, I sent an IMT (see here) highlighting how we called the bottom in Nasdaq at 22780, with a video demonstration shown here . On Monday, we issued a bullish post on Nasdaq, calling for a rally extension to 24,440 at the meeting point of the 200-DMA. This is what we call 2000 points highlighted to out WhatsApp Bdcst Group members. We ignored the insults-ridden messages of Trump, we disregarded his threats to "destroy civilisation" and stayed Long Gold and Long Nasdaq until 4840 and 24,440. 4840, you may recall is a near make-or break level for Wave 4. So, You have two choices: Chase Trump and the news on every release, or stick to a set of fundamental and technical framework. Here is one message sent on Monday before going on holiday.
Next Key Levels
It is no surprise for risk appetite to rally in April. After all, April is the 2nd best month for US equity indices as an average of the past 25 years. The charts below show the next threshold resistance for risk appetite. Notably, US100 faces a confluence of 200-DMA and trendline resistance around 24380-24440. SPX faces its 200-DMA at 6644. Gold needs to save 4640s, while silver is capped at a wedge resistance at 74.00.
Gold's 730 am Test
Here is a test for gold traders during the Asia Session, which has worked more than 4x over the past 4 weeks. Full Video here
10 Pct Limit
The S&P500 index, the most widely followed index in the world (in terms of benchmarks) has now fallen exactly 10% from its record high. Major markets such as S&P500, EURUSD, XAUUSD, oil etc are widely scrutinized when their drawdowns reach high profile figures such as 10%,15% and 20%. At these points, algos and automated buy programs are alerted and even triggered. Similar action when these markets reach high profile moving averages such as 55, 100 and 200. In today's case, today's SPX 10% decline coincides with the 55-DMA. Note in the drawdown charts below, what happened when SPX drawdown reached the 10% level. The most likely scenario (according to multi-year cycle averages), indices will have a positive April before resuming fresh downside ahead.
Here is what Matters
You must be tired of reading analysis about 15 war scenarios and 7 different explanations of why gold fell with stocks despite surging geopolitical risks. But here is what really matters: Last Monday, minutes after gold hit the $4090 low, I sent the below messages to our WhatsApp Bdcst Group, clearly stating the following: 1. Gold has seen the bottom and will not fall below $4090. 2. Equity indices like the Nasdaq100 will not rebound with gold, but will continue to fall into the rest of the week until reaching a low on Friday or Sunday night. And so, just when everyone was used to the idea of gold dropping with stocks, I sent an alert to our members on Tuesday/Wednesday that the correlation will weaken, leading to gold rebounding and indices trailing behind ...until..this week. This is what really matters. The bottom image contains a message from a member thanking me for rescuing his account when he asked me whether to close his gold Long at a loss near $4370. As gold dropped to $4350, I told him to keep the Long position. He listened, held and later closed his long at $4520, making $1500 in profit. This is how we link analysis to trading and positioning.
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