Gold is back retesting that $4670/80 level, representing the 38% fibonacci retracement, covered in that Fibonacci video 3 weeks ago. This time, however, the level, becomes a resistance rather than support. Note how silver is also facing a key 38% retracement level around 84.00. It is common to see silver falling behind gold, or gold leading silver. If more optimism emerges and metals push higher alongside further USD weakness, then silver's path above 80 will imply a decline in the gold/silver ratio. Watch whether gold closes the NY session above $4680/90, in which case silver will need to confirm with a break above 80 in Thursday Asia or Thursday Europe session.  For those trading gold, 4720 follows as the immediate resistance, a break oif which paves the way for 4770.  

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The current decline in oil prices has accelerated the decline in USDJPY as Japan is one of the world's biggest oil importers. Some oil charts are showing a potential for a double top. Those who missed the move in USDPY, should tread carefully. The pair broke below the 55 and 100 DMA in a single day to register its biggest percentage decline since December 2022 of more than 2.5% . DXY is down 0.8%, its fastest daily percentage decline since March 19. Shorting USDJPY at this point is risky as it is resting on the trendline support from the April 2025 low. Do not short USDJPY below155.80/80.

For US crude oil, however, currently trading at 104.15, the the next trendline support stands at $102.00, withe the potential of seeing a $101.30 print. Keep an eye on Brent oil, which is already resting on the trendline support (see chart) at $114.00. A close below $111.00, could become the driver of other energy prices and trigger a sub $100 in crude. 

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Whether Fed chair Powell sounds dovish or hawlish in his last press conference as chairman of the Federal Reserve later this evening, the downward path of last resistance for gold and silver is 4430/60 and 69/70 respectively. Using simple horizontal support lines, both metals are likely to find next support around this region, which coincides with the closing value of XAUUSD on the day it bounced off its 200-DMA on March 23. The run-up in US (and rest of G7) bond yields is also dragging down metals and boosting US Dollar. The next shoe to drop is likely to be equities at which point, the selloff in metals will diminish.

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