Intraday Market Thoughts

Break, Correct, Kiss, Rebound

Nov 23, 2022 13:29 | by Ashraf Laidi

Last week I reiterated to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group that indices will maintain their gains by repeating the July action of breaking above the 100 DMA for a few days, pull back to kiss it it before rallying anew and completing another +17%-18% run from the low to rest at the 200DMA. The chart was part of the slides of my presentation in Amman last week. Whether indices extend their gains for a Santa Rally, depends on next week's core PCE release as well as CPI (Dec 13th) and the Fed decision (Dec 14th). Next week's release of the Nov jobs report will be important but not as crucial as CPI and PCE. Putting "what if" scenarios aside, we stick with the tactical frameworks shared with the WBG as of early Nov. 

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Break, Correct, Kiss, Rebound - Spx Slides Nov 23 2022 (Chart 1)

Chat on EURGBP دردشة عن

Nov 23, 2022 12:50 | by Ashraf Laidi

Vudeo short on EURGBP in English        تعليق عن يورو إسترليني بالعربي

Chat on EURGBP دردشة عن - Youtube Cov Short Eurgbp (Chart 1)

Recording of my Talk with LeadLag Report

Nov 18, 2022 13:02 | by Ashraf Laidi

Here is the recording of my Twitter Spaces chat with Michael Gayed of the LeadLag Report on 5th of November about FX, yields, metals and Fed policy. The wording of the title "Dollar is Finished" is a slight exageration by the publishers. I do see weakness ahead but but do not consider it "finished". Enjoy the session. And if you're in Amman, drop by the Interecontinental Hotel for Saturday's event.

Predicting, Timing & Narrating Historical Moves

Nov 11, 2022 19:32 | by Ashraf Laidi

There are a dozen of several solid "perfect" explanations for the protracted USD decline and the explosive push up in metals and indices. Some have pointed to the rounded top in DXY, others to the lower highs in bond yields, while others assert the importance of mid-term elections seasonals and how November is the best time for equities in the 2nd presidential cycle. How about our repeated assertions of higher lows in silver, copper and palladium acted as a leading signal for a looming rally in gold. All of that works. Our recent video showed how the 10yr/3mth was accurate in timing the end of Fed hikes helped. It does not matter whether the Fed will hike again in December. More importantly, it is the lower magnitude of the upcoming rate hike-- whose impact on the Yield Spread is similar to a no-hike--that is more material for market impact. See the historicals and the timing of the video here again. There is another chart, which was shared with our WhatsApp Broadcast Group on the day of the Gold Explosion-USD-Collapse. Read more below (not the chart immediately below but the one under it).

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Predicting, Timing & Narrating Historical Moves - Whatsapp Usdcad Nov 11 2022 (Chart 1)

The chart below (XME/XLE vs XAUUSD) was posted on November 8th, moments before gold "took off". The most important part of this chart was not stated on the original tweet. But here is what we told our WhatsApp Broadcast Group when we shared the chart with them: The small red horizontal line (Dec 2016) was followed by gold rallying on the 8th week (8th yellow candle), coinciding lift-off in the RSI of the XME/XLE. The same development emerged this week.  If that's too obscure of an indicator, that is OK. But there was a reason why I chose to time the sharing of the chart with our WBG members. As for the above USDCAD chart, it is self explanatory. Now we wait for Fed members to come next week to warn on how more should be done to bring down inflation. But will they walk such talk in December? 

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Predicting, Timing & Narrating Historical Moves - Xme Xle Nov 8 2022 (Chart 2)

See you in Jordan Saturday نراكم في الأردن السبت القادم

Nov 10, 2022 17:58 | by Ashraf Laidi

بانتظاركم مع شركة السلام للاستثمارات المالية في ندوة خاصة لتطوير مهارات التداول والتحليل في عمان، الاردن يوم السبت 19.11.2022، في فتدق الانتركونتيننتال احجز مقعدك المجاني الان

Glad to announce that I will be taking a part in AL Salam investment Seminar in Amman, Jordan on the 19th of November, at the Intercontinental Hotel. Book your spot here.