Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

Displaying results for week of Aug 01, 2021

ISM-Clarida Shake Yields up

Aug 4, 2021 17:11 | by Ashraf Laidi

Just as falling bond yields were becoming the path of least resistance, a combination of upside surprise in services ISM and hawkish comments from Fed vice chair Clarida. The pre-FOMC Premium trade in NZDUSD is now over 100-pips in the green and Tuesday's Premium trade was up +80 pips until the bounce in yields.  Ashraf told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group (see below) he remained long gold from 1812 until 1832 -- and that's where gold topped out before plunging after ISM and Clarida. 

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ISM-Clarida Shake Yields up - Whatsapp Gold Aug 4 2021 (Chart 1)

Services ISM hit a fresh record at 64.1 with strong gains in prices paid (82.3 from 79.5) and employment (53.8 from 49.3). Clarida doubled down on taper and rates, saying the former could start as early as this year and the latter could lift by late 2022 or early 2023. 10 year yields spiked from under 1.14% to over 1.20%, dragging metals and JPY across the board. Clarida's comments could grease the wheels of USD bulls on any sign of beat in Friday's jobs figures, despite today's miss in the ADP. 

Did Clarida's comments tell us anything new? Apart from telling us he is one of the hawkish dots who made the shift at the June FOMC, not much. The division inside the Fed will likely grow wider, which will only lead them to compromise on taper in terms of size, pace and timing.

 

It's getting real with yields

Aug 2, 2021 18:10 | by Ashraf Laidi

Bond yields are falling fast, but the real damage is in REAL yields (yields minus inflation) as these hit an all time low. 10-year Inflation breakevens remain stable between 2.3% and 2.5%, while nominal US 10-year yields sustain a fresh plunge to 1.16% (from 1.45% two weeks ago), causing REAL yields to hit -1.2%, leaving very little alternative competition to the non-yielding gold. Ive explained recently in this video here how the current moves are a strong reason gold will avoid the crash of 2013-14 and in this video why the Fed/USTreasury will ensure keeping real yields down and what it means for the US dollar in this video.     

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It's getting real with yields - Real Yields Gold Aug 2 2021 (Chart 1)

ندوة مساء الثلاثاء مع أشرف العايدي

Aug 2, 2021 16:44 | by Ashraf Laidi

تابعوا ندوتنا الالكترونيّة المجانيّة "ماذا يعني فوز الفيدرالي بثقة الأسواق؟" مع أشرف العايدي  مساء الغد، في الساعة 9

GotoWebinarمساءً بتوقيت مكة المكرمة، مباشرةً من جهازك المحمول عبر تطبيق