I'm waiting for a QE from ECB today and if it is the case the euro falls and if it is not the case the euro falls because loss in trust of eurozone is total
In March, exports rose 14.6% in real terms to 17.8 billion Swiss francs--indicating that the Swiss export industry remains competitive despite the franc's gains.
The Swiss National Bank slashed interest rates to a record-low of 0.25% in March 2009. Some observers say it could begin raising rates again in the second half of this year.
0848 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss National Bank president Philipp Hildebrand provided no fresh clues on its currency intervention policy in his speech Friday, says Bank Sarasin. "There isn't much that's new, and I think that is reflected by the steady market reaction," says economist Ursina Kubli. The SNB may decide to slowly exit its policy of curbing excessive franc gains once the Swiss economic recovery is better established, she adds. "The SNB may then tolerate EUR/CHF at around 1.40," she notes.
On the graphic plan it seems that there is a big head&schoulders inverted on eur/usd which could augur of a rally until 1.3700 again, (I am not really convinced of it) but fundamentaly I think that the meetings of this weekend are again going to bring nothing as regards the grece, the help is already in the prices and the movement of Friday seems to be the same that 15 days ago on eurusd. A big gap gets ready for the Sunday evening opening for the decline.
14 Apr 2010 20:54 GMT UBS EURUSD 1.3818 Key The Trend-Cycle model is far from perfect. Last week, it's negative readings (red bars) had me looking at the recovery from 1.3283 as a small wave .2 correction. It turned out to be much more. Notice today that the model is turning neutral (black bar). It's the first cyclical evidence that the bear trend is indeed taking a notable breather, at a minimum. It also brings up the possibility of a rather bullish wave count. Note that the downswing from 1.5144 (November 25 high) to 1.3268 (March 25 low) now looks liked a completed five-wave move for wave ((i)). That means wave ((ii)) has been correcting higher from 1.3268. It's maintaining the necessary three-leg path, but so far it's a bit stunted in relationship to wave ((i)). Normally, a correction of this degree would retrace 0.382 of wave (i) and/or reach the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case, those levels come in at 1.3818 and 1.3985, respectively. Finally, and this is just one possibility, second waves often retrace 0.618 of the respective first waves. So in this case, if 1.3818/1.3985 cannot hold back this correction, 1.4427 (0.618 of 1.5144-1.3268 would certainly become a possibility.
14 Apr 2010 20:54 GMT UBS EURUSD 1.3818 Key The Trend-Cycle model is far from perfect. Last week, it's negative readings (red bars) had me looking at the recovery from 1.3283 as a small wave .2 correction. It turned out to be much more. Notice today that the model is turning neutral (black bar). It's the first cyclical evidence that the bear trend is indeed taking a notable breather, at a minimum. It also brings up the possibility of a rather bullish wave count. Note that the downswing from 1.5144 (November 25 high) to 1.3268 (March 25 low) now looks liked a completed five-wave move for wave ((i)). That means wave ((ii)) has been correcting higher from 1.3268. It's maintaining the necessary three-leg path, but so far it's a bit stunted in relationship to wave ((i)). Normally, a correction of this degree would retrace 0.382 of wave (i) and/or reach the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case, those levels come in at 1.3818 and 1.3985, respectively. Finally, and this is just one possibility, second waves often retrace 0.618 of the respective first waves. So in this case, if 1.3818/1.3985 cannot hold back this correction, 1.4427 (0.618 of 1.5144-1.3268 would certainly become a possibility.
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ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (10 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (10 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (10 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(10 months ago)
How bitcoin halvingreduces bitcoin inflation below that of gold and how its "hardness" can beat every other asset & currency over time. Watch here.
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
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Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
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But i'm out before ECB meeting today
The Swiss National Bank slashed interest rates to a record-low of 0.25% in March 2009. Some observers say it could begin raising rates again in the second half of this year.
dj
It's time to short EurCHF !
0848 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss National Bank president Philipp Hildebrand provided no fresh clues on its currency intervention policy in his speech Friday, says Bank Sarasin. "There isn't much that's new, and I think that is reflected by the steady market reaction," says economist Ursina Kubli. The SNB may decide to slowly exit its policy of curbing excessive franc gains once the Swiss economic recovery is better established, she adds. "The SNB may then tolerate EUR/CHF at around 1.40," she notes.
dj
where did you found this news about Yuan revaluation for today, please ?
dj
but fundamentaly I think that the meetings of this weekend are again going to bring nothing as regards the grece, the help is already in the prices and the movement of Friday seems to be the same that 15 days ago on eurusd. A big gap gets ready for the Sunday evening opening for the decline.
djellal
UBS
EURUSD 1.3818 Key
The Trend-Cycle model is far from perfect. Last week, it's negative readings (red bars) had me looking at the recovery from 1.3283 as a small wave .2 correction. It turned out to be much more.
Notice today that the model is turning neutral (black bar). It's the first cyclical evidence that the bear trend is indeed taking a notable breather, at a minimum. It also brings up the possibility of a rather bullish wave count. Note that the downswing from 1.5144 (November 25 high) to 1.3268 (March 25 low) now looks liked a completed five-wave move for wave ((i)). That means wave ((ii)) has been correcting higher from 1.3268.
It's maintaining the necessary three-leg path, but so far it's a bit stunted in relationship to wave ((i)). Normally, a correction of this degree would retrace 0.382 of wave (i) and/or reach the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case, those levels come in at 1.3818 and 1.3985, respectively.
Finally, and this is just one possibility, second waves often retrace 0.618 of the respective first waves. So in this case, if 1.3818/1.3985 cannot hold back this correction, 1.4427 (0.618 of 1.5144-1.3268 would certainly become a possibility.
UBS
EURUSD 1.3818 Key
The Trend-Cycle model is far from perfect. Last week, it's negative readings (red bars) had me looking at the recovery from 1.3283 as a small wave .2 correction. It turned out to be much more.
Notice today that the model is turning neutral (black bar). It's the first cyclical evidence that the bear trend is indeed taking a notable breather, at a minimum. It also brings up the possibility of a rather bullish wave count. Note that the downswing from 1.5144 (November 25 high) to 1.3268 (March 25 low) now looks liked a completed five-wave move for wave ((i)). That means wave ((ii)) has been correcting higher from 1.3268.
It's maintaining the necessary three-leg path, but so far it's a bit stunted in relationship to wave ((i)). Normally, a correction of this degree would retrace 0.382 of wave (i) and/or reach the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case, those levels come in at 1.3818 and 1.3985, respectively.
Finally, and this is just one possibility, second waves often retrace 0.618 of the respective first waves. So in this case, if 1.3818/1.3985 cannot hold back this correction, 1.4427 (0.618 of 1.5144-1.3268 would certainly become a possibility.
do you think that risk appetite in equity markets may continue to pressure the dollar and provide EUR/USD support ?
I'm waiting a sharp rally on USD dispite Bernanke' fears on labour market and Us deficits
thanks
dj