Forum Posts by : frankbrit (Forum Member)

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 2, 2010 10:47

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Thanks for your kind feedback Ashraf - noted that AUD running out of steam .v. USD and JPY and not much retracement expected in either - i.e. downside acceleration in AUD.

@ said. Why do you feel the JPY rally against the commodity currencies will be short-lived? Firstly, how long is short lived? Second, how long can they go?

I guess you're implying that this might be the last big charge of the JPY before the USD takes over or (depending on the nature of the recovery, strength, inflation, etc) the commodity currencies bounce back?

Look forward to your thoughts.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 1, 2010 19:06

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Ashraf, noted your comments on AUD/JPY on your video link - thanks.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 1, 2010 10:41

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

P.S. The background of my thinking is also that if the RBA increases rates (tomorrow?) perhaps because of the imported inflation from its big trade partner China then will the AUD bounce (at least temporarily)?

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Feb 1, 2010 10:35

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Hi Ashraf and everyone,

Holding about 50 / 50 cash JPY and AUD - looking to get rid of my AUD soon - although AUD/JPY has not made a daily low just yet. Is a retractment expected from the recent drop and to what level? i.e. what would be a good level to sell my AUD on the basis of holding JPY for some weeks?

Any thoughts and ideas would be very welcome.

Kind regards to All.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Jan 22, 2010 22:25

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Ashraf - in fact you're busy all the time ... here, Twitter, articles here and elsewhere ... a veritable one man army. It's just that I can't read as fast, or as much as you're writing! I noticed some IMT's today touching on some meaty ideas on the macro side - notably at 12.28 ET. Weekly momentum on the yielders starting to look very sickly now ... Nice w/e.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Jan 22, 2010 16:32

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@ said - that's true ... even though the CT is nowhere near the scale of its heyday (I think I read somewhere it's about a third of the peak level - but maybe I'm mistaken). Anyhow, it's still a factor to be considered - the question is how much? Only time will answer that one.

FrankBrit

Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Jan 22, 2010 15:52

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

I must say I'm feeling something queasy in my stomach a bit like mid 2008 - a shifting of the sands which was happening gently over the last months - since September perhaps - has suddenly accelerated - could be time for another of your stimulating articles Ashraf?

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Jan 22, 2010 15:42

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

AUD/JPY kind of looks like a flag might be playing out not ready for a drop to the 79 mark - will that be the right neckline or will it keep on going ... ? Will AUD go the same way as summer 2008 and go to the dogs or will any drop be limited by it's high yield status? Can it maintain the high yield? Will China/Asia be able to maintain enough recovery impetus to keep demand going for the AUD? Will inflation/fiat currency worries support metals and the AUD? My crystal ball is very murky at the moment for how things will go for AUD/JPY or AUD/USD over the next weeks ... But something's happening that's for sure ... Any thoughts anyone?

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Jan 21, 2010 22:37

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

@ said. For me the question is whether at that point the USD will be strong against other currencies except JPY or whether it will be a borderline basket case against all major currencies including the JPY? I leave you with that. A bientot!

FrankBrit

Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Posts: 73

14 years ago

Jan 21, 2010 22:23

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

@ said. Thanks, will monitor with interest. I've been in JPY since mid 2008 and EUR, CHF, AUD for a bit. No pipping for me until I find the right vehicle ... low leverage ... I might dummy trade for a bit and build some discipline and good habits ... But I have a day job to do too. JPY won't run forever though - Deutsche Bank had some recents interesting comments in FT on potential final target based on historically typical 20 pct overvaluation - about 75 or so I think. I won't be so ambitious, however, as even if acheived it could come and go in a nanosecond - and anyway, it depends what going on with other currencies.

Posts by "frankbrit"