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189 Posts Total by "macrosam":
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macrosam
(United States)
5 Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
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macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 12, 2010 21:26
In Thread: EUR
Going short at 1.3590 with a reasonably tight stop slightly above 1.3600, making the beat that R1 holds as it has been all of today (pop 150 pip gap from yesterday, that is). Also doing this considering that once EUR/USD could only briefly stay under its 50day EMA yesterday and that once it retested it, it failed substantially. Coupled with this the US Dollar maintaining its uptrendline from November 2009 in addition to trading above its 50day EMA all day today (like EUR/USD, briefly failed this level due to yesterday's squeeze).

Tight stop, very specific play in mind, looking for 1.3500 and below if this holds. If not, I'm out less than 30 pips.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 14:37
In Thread: EUR
I agree on GBP/EUR and GBP/USD. I suspect you are also correct on EUR/USD but I have to stay in this trade until the trendline is proven to be broken.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 13:39
In Thread: EUR
If that occurs, then I will cover very quickly and may switch to a long. I am establishing a plan at this moment should the trendline fail.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 13:25
In Thread: EUR
I agree, Ashraf. All I've really been doing is mining the down trendline with sell orders waiting to be lifted.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 19:10
In Thread: EUR
catnip, I don't disagree with you regarding extending that support to all members but at the moment, the only euro zone member that would benefit is Greece. Look at the yield curves for Portugal, Italy, Spain, etc. You'll see that they can already borrow at rates favorable to euribor + 275, so the extension of that is more effective in spirit than in body (spirit in that it does acknowledge the status of other euro zone members).

I still have no inclination to close out my short at this point. I may in fact add here.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 18:51
In Thread: EUR
I've heard the euribor + 275 rumors as well but if the market believed that was the agreed upon, the GGB yield curve should have really steepened. The front-end of that curve should be considered money good and anything 1-year and in should have ripped in significantly more than it did, especially if a bailout package is announced where the amount of euros backing Greece exceed the debt due in 2010.

Not saying that this won't happen Sunday/Monday, but it didn't happen today. I suspect there is more to the weekend meeting than negotiating a Greece bailout package. I wonder if some of the contagion has indeed already begun to spread to banks within the EU.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 18:30
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
I think it makes too much sense to not allow Yuan appreciation, though the degree of the appreciation and speed of the implementation are delicate matters. A currency appreciation, if executed properly, would enable China to export their inflation to nations that need re-inflation.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 18:28
In Thread: EUR
No desire to cover yet, though I may lighten up my exposure.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 17:14
In Thread: EUR
This intervention explains some of the double bottoming action that seems to have occurred desptie plenty of room being left for a continued downtrend from a technical analysis perspective. There are significant pressures on maintaining competitiveness in a global recession.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 17:03
In Thread: EUR
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6279ff3c-43cd-11df-b474-00144feab49a.html
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