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189 Posts Total by "macrosam":
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macrosam
(United States)
5 Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
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macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 19:10
In Thread: EUR
catnip, I don't disagree with you regarding extending that support to all members but at the moment, the only euro zone member that would benefit is Greece. Look at the yield curves for Portugal, Italy, Spain, etc. You'll see that they can already borrow at rates favorable to euribor + 275, so the extension of that is more effective in spirit than in body (spirit in that it does acknowledge the status of other euro zone members).

I still have no inclination to close out my short at this point. I may in fact add here.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 18:51
In Thread: EUR
I've heard the euribor + 275 rumors as well but if the market believed that was the agreed upon, the GGB yield curve should have really steepened. The front-end of that curve should be considered money good and anything 1-year and in should have ripped in significantly more than it did, especially if a bailout package is announced where the amount of euros backing Greece exceed the debt due in 2010.

Not saying that this won't happen Sunday/Monday, but it didn't happen today. I suspect there is more to the weekend meeting than negotiating a Greece bailout package. I wonder if some of the contagion has indeed already begun to spread to banks within the EU.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 18:30
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
I think it makes too much sense to not allow Yuan appreciation, though the degree of the appreciation and speed of the implementation are delicate matters. A currency appreciation, if executed properly, would enable China to export their inflation to nations that need re-inflation.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 18:28
In Thread: EUR
No desire to cover yet, though I may lighten up my exposure.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 17:14
In Thread: EUR
This intervention explains some of the double bottoming action that seems to have occurred desptie plenty of room being left for a continued downtrend from a technical analysis perspective. There are significant pressures on maintaining competitiveness in a global recession.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 17:03
In Thread: EUR
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6279ff3c-43cd-11df-b474-00144feab49a.html
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 17:01
In Thread: EUR
Today's rally was more than just EUR/USD short covering on the Greece soap opera. The Polish zloty had its steepest decline in two months. The Financial Times is reporting that the Polish central bank intervened today as the zloty had increased 6% against the euro in the first quarter.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 16:20
In Thread: EUR
They have to come up with something, however. A downgrade by Moody's is inevitable now and too many Greek banks hold Greek bonds. Too many banks in the EU itself hold Greek bonds.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 15:52
In Thread: EUR
I don't see a package being finalized this weekend. It could happen but I doubt it. IMF involvement is still currently unlikely.

A broader financial issue on the precipice that is related to Greece's downgrades and expected further downgrades could require addressing, which may be what the meeting is more about.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 15:43
In Thread: EUR
Puts pressure on Moody's to downgrade now as well. This BBB- doesn't impact the collateral posting issue yet but it may soon. ECB references the highest rating across ratings agencies and Moody's still has Greece rated as A.

This forces a decision to be made this weekend. It will be interesting to see if there is a rush to cover by the close.
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