Posts by "macrosam"

You cannot compare the yield on the current 10yr treasury (the cash treasury, the 3.625% 2/20) to the 10 year futures contract. There is a difference between cash treasuries and treasury futures. Futures are short an option which is based on the cheapest-to-delivery treasury out of the available basket of deliverable treasuries. When you go long a future, you are short an option because the other party that is short the future to you has an option on which cash treasury to eventually deliver into your contract if you don't close out (this is how it is settled, similar to how barrells of oil will be delivered if you hold crude futures to settlement). The current cash treasury that the 10 year futures considers to be the cheapest-to-deliver is the 3% of 2/17, not the current 3.625% of 2/20 that you are making the price/yield comparison to. So you are comparing the yield on the 3.625% 2/20 to the futures contract that is referencing a different 10 year treasury (the 3% of 2/17) in that basket of available treasuries to be delivered.

Add to this additional distortions that can result due to the futures contract being too cheap or too rich to the cash treasury it is referencing as the cheapest-to-deliver (i.e. may be rich since requires less cash outlay than the cash treasury, etc.).

Chicago would be a great destination, Ashraf!

Just a hint.

jamshed, I've been short the euro since 1.5050 though initially I was short a handful of contracts as a hedge against my gold long. I wanted to own gold futures just not denominated in dollars as the USD broke through its downtrendline and began this anticipated rally we're seeing to this day. Needless to say, even with the correction in gold, I've come out ahead by a decent margin and had added to those gains since closing out my gold position about a month ago. I've probably made more over that stretch than you have in the past year combined, but that's not he point.

The point is this is a forum where we share ideas, concerns, observations, and analysis and learn together, whether it be from each other, from Ashraf, or from the lessons the market teaches on a daily basis.

I'm also a professional institutional trade in derivatives and interest rates space with also exposure to supra/sovereign bonds. I think you don't give this forum and those who follow Ashraf enough credit.

I wish I could attach my own charts. I was not surprised to see a USD sell off at 82.00 as it would have been a nice round resistance number. I was prepared to see USD sell off to 80.65 if necessary, but previous resistance of 80.85 now looks to be support. I think 82.00 will be retested and broken and that USD could see 86.00-87.00 eventually. That does not mean it will not sell-off in between that time but as long as the uptrend line remains in tact, I see this occurring.

Euro and GBP both sitting on S1 now, if these levels break, can see a nice downward move leading into Sunday.